Russia may escalate sabotage in Poland this winter: ISW identifies likely targets
Photo: Polish army soldiers (Getty Images)
Russia may step up sabotage and provocations in Poland during the winter of 2026–2027. Potential targets could include railway and logistics infrastructure, as well as supply routes for Western aid to Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On October 16, Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland's National Security Bureau, stated that the number of hybrid operations in Europe could increase significantly this winter.
According to his assessment, this includes, in particular, possible airstrikes on infrastructure, administrative buildings, and civilian facilities. Drone attacks are also likely to be among the threats.
Commenting on these warnings, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Polish, Ukrainian, and allied intelligence agencies point to the possibility of some escalation leading up to Christmas Eve.
According to Tusk, Russia may intensify its attempts at sabotage and provocation. Among potential targets, he cited gas, oil, and food transport routes to Ukraine, as well as logistics and railway infrastructure near the Polish-Ukrainian border.
The Polish Prime Minister also suggested that Moscow would try to test Warsaw's reaction to such actions.
According to analysts, the Kremlin may be counting on sabotage attempts in European countries to complicate the delivery of Western aid to Ukraine and divert the attention of Kyiv's partners away from supporting the Ukrainian army.
On October 2, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) warned that Russia was preparing new sabotage operations in EU and NATO countries. Among the possible targets cited were military facilities, critical infrastructure, and communications systems, including Starlink satellite internet receiving stations.
In addition, on October 12, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Russia's actions in Europe have already gone beyond hybrid operations and bear the hallmarks of military operations. According to him, these are attacks that result in civilian casualties and are directed against strategically important targets.
