Russia faces growing troop shortage as frontline situation shifts, expert explains
Illustrative photo: Ukrainian military (Getty Images)
Russia does not have sufficient forces to conduct a large-scale offensive along all directions of the frontline, Ukrainian military expert Ivan Stupak says in a comment to the YouTube channel RBC-Ukraine.
According to Stupak, data from open sources are currently being analyzed, and therefore, no significant reserves are being concentrated along the 1000-kilometer front line.
"To say that they have large capabilities along the entire front line with new forces and they can push forward - I wouldn't say that. There’s no evidence of those troops," a Ukrainian military expert noted.
The expert also pointed out that there is evidence of a decrease in the number of personnel in the Russian army. In particular, the Russian command has begun to send military police, which were previously stationed at distant checkpoints, to the front lines.
Stupak highlighted that in April, Russia managed to slightly increase its recruitment of contract soldiers. In Moscow, during the first ten days of April, they were recruiting approximately 100–150 people daily.
"They need people, and they're sending them to the front lines - wounded, crippled, and barefoot - everyone is going," a Ukrainian military expert remarked.
Stupak also emphasized that there is no visible mass accumulation of either personnel or equipment at the moment. Even mechanized assaults occur rarely, as the Russians are preserving their equipment and only use it when they are confident they can break through Ukrainian defenses and secure their position.
As of now, according to the expert's assessment, Russia's potential for offensive actions is only observed in the Sumy direction.
Russia prepares new offensive
Earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russia has essentially launched a new offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. In particular, Ukraine has already recorded a near-doubling of the number of offensive actions from Russia. The Russians likely want to create a buffer zone in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions.
According to the General Staff, Russian activity has indeed been observed in several key directions along the front line. However, this may be part of the offensive actions that the Russians began in May 2024. There have been no significant changes on the front.
Furthermore, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has also assessed the capabilities of the Russian army for an offensive on Sumy.
Read more about whether Russia is planning a large-scale offensive in our article on the topic.
