Russia could attack NATO sooner than intelligence expects - ISW
Illustrative photo: Russia may attack NATO sooner than intelligence agencies predict (GettyImages)
Russia could become a real threat to NATO by 2036. Its sabotage and espionage activities indicate preparations for a possible war with the Alliance, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia's constant sabotage and espionage using drones against military bases and facilities in Europe may indicate that it is already preparing for a possible war with NATO.
Analysts believe that Russia's long-range weapons and advanced drone production pose a direct threat to NATO. Russia is actively forming new military forces and creating a strategic reserve of personnel that can be used both in Ukraine and in a possible war against the Alliance. This indicates that Russia is capable of replenishing its human resources despite heavy losses.
Experts suggest that after the end of active hostilities in Ukraine, Russia will be able to quickly deploy significant military forces on NATO's eastern flank.
The ISW notes that Russia is developing new tactics that allow it to conduct large-scale combat operations without the extensive use of tanks and armored vehicles, limiting such capabilities for its opponents.
Analysts see no signs that the Kremlin will wait for the army to fully recover before launching aggressive actions against NATO countries. They warn that Russia is already gaining extensive experience in modern warfare and may pose new threats immediately after the end of hostilities in Ukraine. Therefore, they say, NATO must be prepared to deter and neutralize these challenges.
Flights of unknown drones over Europe
Over the past month, flights of unknown drones have been recorded in the airspace of a number of European countries over military facilities and critical infrastructure.
Drones were spotted in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Germany, and France. In some cities, civilian airports were temporarily suspended because of the incidents.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggests that such incidents may be provocations by the Kremlin — a kind of test of European countries' reactions and preparation for a possible expansion of the war even before the end of hostilities in Ukraine.
The intelligence has established that many of these drones are launched from tankers belonging to Russia's shadow fleet.
Germany has begun drafting a law that will allow the police to shoot down such drones that violate the rules and fly in restricted areas.
