Russia can keep fighting for another year despite heavy losses – IISS report
Photo: Russia is ready to attack for another year (Getty Images)
The Russian army remains capable of offensive operations for at least another year despite suffering staggering losses in both personnel and equipment in its war against Ukraine. However, its forces have been partially replenished, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The leading security research institute notes that in 2024 alone, Russia lost approximately 1,400 main battle tanks (MBTs) and over 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs). Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Moscow has lost an estimated 14,000 MBTs, IFVs, and APCs.
Despite these staggering numbers, Russia has managed to replace some of its losses by relying on aging Soviet-era equipment. According to IISS estimates, in the past year alone, Russia repaired and produced over 1,500 tanks and around 2,800 IFVs and APCs. However, much of its stored equipment is believed to be in poor condition, making it increasingly difficult for Russia to maintain a sufficient supply of armored vehicles.
By the end of 2024, data from Military Balance+ indicated that Russia’s active combat vehicle numbers had only returned to pre-February 2022 levels. The expansion of Russian military units has further exacerbated equipment shortages, which are compounded by declining manufacturing quality and potential shortages of spare parts.
A key challenge for Russia remains a shortage of IFVs and APCs, even as production increases. In response, Russia has adapted its tactics, compensating for vehicle shortages with infantry assaults and stopgap measures, IISS analysts noted.
Heavy personnel losses
As of early January 2025, IISS estimates that at least 172,000 Russian troops have been killed, while 611,000 have been wounded. Among the wounded, at least 376,000 suffered severe injuries leading to disability, while 235,000 are expected to recover and return to combat.
Despite these staggering losses, Russia has mobilized approximately 976,000 soldiers through a combination of forced conscription in occupied Donbas, the 2022 mobilization campaign, and prison recruitment programs. As of late December 2024, up to 617,000 Russian troops were deployed in Ukraine or stationed nearby, including those recovering from injuries and undergoing training.
“While Russian forces are likely to degrade in the coming months, they have been sufficiently reconstituted and adapted to sustain offensive operations for at least another year; this would, however, come at a very high cost of equipment and casualties,” the IISS report concludes.
Despite a difficult year on the battlefield, Ukraine’s armed forces have successfully limited Russia’s territorial gains and inflicted significant losses on its military, according to IISS assessments.
