Revolution for Erdoğan? Why mass protests erupted in Türkiye and how the West reacts
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Photo: Getty Images)
The arrest of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, a key opposition leader, has triggered mass protests in Türkiye. However, for now, the threat to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does not seem critical.
RBC-Ukraine explains the background of these events, how the US and Europe have reacted, and what other leverage the government and opposition still hold.
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Why Erdoğan's rival arrested
Another of Ukraine's neighboring countries—this time across the sea — may be plunging into political chaos.
On the night of March 19-20, mass protests erupted in Istanbul, Türkiye's largest city, with some clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement. Thousands of people gathered outside the city hall, chanting: "Erdoğan is a dictator!" and "İmamoğlu, you are not alone!"
The night before, Turkish authorities carried out mass arrests in Istanbul, including the detention of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and more than 100 others. Among those arrested were his advisor, Murat Ongun, and his campaign director, Necat Şahin. In addition, authorities seized assets belonging to İmamoğlu's company, İmamoğlu Construction.
The detainees face corruption charges. Investigators claim that the Istanbul mayor led a criminal organization that engaged in illegal tender allocations and extortion. Moreover, İmamoğlu and six other individuals were accused of financing the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is designated as a terrorist organization in Türkiye.
İmamoğlu is a prominent figure in the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and is considered one of Erdoğan's main rivals in the 2028 presidential elections. However, in Türkiye, there is speculation that early elections may be held. On March 23, the CHP was set to officially nominate him as their presidential candidate. Following his arrest, the opposition called it a politically motivated crackdown to eliminate competition.
Protest in Istanbul (photo: Getty Images)
On top of the arrest, Istanbul University revoked İmamoğlu's university degree. This occurred after the Prosecutor General's Office questioned its legitimacy, citing potential procedural violations during his transfer from another university. According to Türkiye's constitution, only individuals with higher education can run for president.
Serhii Danylov, deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies, told RBC-Ukraine that political motives are present in the case.
"Erdoğan and his party view their electoral chances skeptically. Especially if the current trend continues. For them, the mayor of Istanbul is an insurmountable obstacle," Danylov stated.
How the world reacted
Several international leaders expressed cautious concern about the events in Türkiye but have so far refrained from harsh criticism.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos issued a joint statement saying that the arrest of İmamoğlu raises concerns about Türkiye's commitment to its long-standing democratic traditions. The EU urged Turkish authorities to ensure complete transparency in the case.
US State spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that the US would not comment on internal political processes in Türkiye but emphasized: "But – except to remind them that we expect them to behave in a manner that respects the rights of all of its citizens. And I think that’s pretty obvious. But it’s good to repeat"
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, set to leave her position soon, condemned the arrest, calling it a severe blow to democracy in Türkiye. "We clearly see that the space for opposition politicians is shrinking," she said.
French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Christophe Lemoine expressed deep concern over the actions of Turkish authorities, warning that they "could have serious consequences for Turkish democracy."
Danylov believes the West's restrained reaction is strategic.
"There are reasons to believe that this measured response is tied to Türkiye's crucial role in European security architecture. Its role will only grow, and without Turkey, ensuring security will be difficult," he explained.
Specifically, Türkiye is being considered for a role in an international peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine and a stronger NATO position amid the US's geopolitical retreat.
However, under different geopolitical circumstances, the criticism directed at Turkish authorities would likely have been much stronger.
Repeat of an old story
Neither the government nor the opposition appears willing to back down. Turkish authorities are considering placing Istanbul under external administration.
Authorities imposed a four-day protest ban in the city and restricted access to social media platforms including X (formerly Twitter), TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube.
The opposition announced new mass protests for Sunday, March 23. İmamoğlu, speaking through his lawyer, sent a message to his supporters:
"I am in good spirits, and I advise everyone not to lose heart. We will get through this challenge and emerge even stronger," he wrote.
Ekrem İmamoğlu (photo: Getty Images)
Danylov believes İmamoğlu could gain political strength, even if jailed — just as Erdoğan did decades ago.
In 1998, while serving as Istanbul's mayor, Erdoğan was imprisoned for reciting a poem deemed to incite religious hatred. As a result, he lost his position and spent several months in prison. However, this helped him shape his image as a national leader, ultimately leading to his rise to power.
The future of this crisis depends on how the government and the opposition navigate it.
The economic fallout is another factor working against Erdoğan. Following İmamoğlu's arrest, Türkiye's stock market and the lira crashed to record lows. Although the situation remains under control, the combination of political and economic instability could escalate into a major crisis for Erdoğan's government.
At the same time, some factors favor the government. Not all of Türkiye's population supports the opposition. The materials collected against Imamoglu are quite detailed and can convince a significant part of the population.
As the first day of protests showed, Türkiye's security forces remain monolithic and have the will to act decisively. In addition, the protesters have not yet garnered support from abroad. The next major action will demonstrate the trend in which the protests are moving.
Sources: materials from Sabah, Cumhuriyet, Türkiye Today, statements by Turkish, European, and American politicians and officials, and comments by Serhiy Danylov.
