Possible formats of foreign troop presence in Ukraine: Experts outline scenarios
Illustrative photo: Experts named scenarios for the deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine (Getty Images)
The most realistic scenario for the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine could be positioning them farther from the front line. Foreign military personnel could perform several functions, according to the article by RBC-Ukraine.
"From my point of view, the most effective option is not deploying military contingents but, for example, something like the French gendarmerie – an equivalent of our National Guard, to protect nuclear power stations, for example. And here, Russia’s consent is not required," said Oleksandr Saienko, a military analyst at the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO).
However, according to Oleksandr Khara, a diplomat and head of the Center for Defense Strategies, it is important that foreign troops in Ukraine provide security in the air and at sea.
"The most important thing is to ensure security in the air and at sea. This means air defense/missile defense – possibly with air defense systems or aviation, as well as a naval component, to prevent the cutting off of our sea communication lines. This is the most important thing, and it can be done without risking starting a World War Three, as Trump warns us about," said Khara.
On the other hand, expert Serhii Polyovyk from the Borysfen Intel Analytical Center believes that the very presence of NATO structures on Ukrainian territory, even deep within the country, would be accompanied by the relevant information.
"This means that AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft) will be flying and that airspace will be patrolled along the line of demarcation and Ukraine’s borders with NATO countries. This will enter the informational space. Whether it will be public is another question, but it will be known what is happening on the Russian side," Polyovyk said.
The expert emphasized that this will be a “deterrent factor for the Russians, but it cannot be the dominant element to change Russian decisions or actions if they decide to continue aggression.”
However, in this case, security guarantees cannot be promised. According to Khara, the deployment of European troops on Ukrainian territory would not fall under Article 5. It would fall under Article 6, which does not involve NATO's participation in the war if Russia attacks the contingent.
Overall, Ukraine’s European partners have started thinking more about their own security, no longer taking the "security umbrella" from the US as a given. Meanwhile, the question of a contingent in Ukraine is one of the components of this security. However, so far, even the boldest politicians in Europe are not ready to take risks and are not considering the option of deploying their own troops on Ukraine’s side, which could significantly change the situation. Half-measures, which may be implemented, could only slightly ease Ukraine’s situation but will not guarantee protection from renewed Russian aggression.
Security guarantees for Ukraine
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there are two options for security guarantees for Ukraine. The first is NATO membership, and the second is a strong Ukrainian army and a European contingent in Ukraine.
Recently, the media reported that Europe is developing a plan to send soldiers to Ukraine. According to the latest information, European countries are ready to allocate up to 30,000 troops for such a mission.
