Number of migrants from Ukraine rises rapidly: NBU names reason
In a month, 160 thousand people left Ukraine due to power outages (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The difficult energy situation in July 2024 has led to an increase in migration abroad. Since the beginning of the year, the number of migrants has risen by almost 400,000 people, according to the NBU’s (National Bank of Ukraine) Macroeconomic and Monetary Review (September 2024).
According to UN estimates, as of August 19, 2024, the number of Ukrainian migrants worldwide reached 6.739 million people, compared to 6.58 million a month earlier (an increase of 160,000).
The largest number of Ukrainian migrants are in Germany (1.1 million), Poland (976,000), and Czechia (361,000).
At the same time, the NBU reports that recipient countries are gradually tightening conditions for Ukrainian migrants:
- In Poland, there are ongoing changes to shift from current temporary protection to temporary residence. Starting in July 2024, the one-time aid of 300 zlotys for living expenses and the 40-zloty daily assistance for accommodation and food in private homes have been canceled for most people;
- In Czechia, a limit of 150 days is being introduced for staying in state-provided humanitarian housing, after which standard rental conditions will apply;
- In Germany, Ukrainian migrants have the lowest employment rate in the EU due to significant welfare benefits during education, and plans are underway to review these. There will also be stricter regulations regarding refusal to work.
Migration forecast
In July, the NBU downgraded its migration outlook. It now expects further outflows of migrants abroad in 2024-2025 (approximately 400,000 and 300,000 people, respectively). This revision is driven by significant damage to Ukraine’s energy system, accompanied by prolonged power outages, and increasing risks for the heating season.
