More fearful than Putin: Ukraine's intelligence exposes Lukashenko's 'nightmare'

Belarus lost its military sovereignty

According to Pavlenko, Belarus lost its military sovereignty long ago. This is especially evident when analyzing Ukraine’s past experience.

For example, under the agreement regarding the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, initially the Ukrainian Navy was withdrawn to Donuzlav Bay, and later the deployment of FSB units in Sevastopol was permitted. Subsequently, Russian special services deployed large-scale subversive activities.

“Therefore, our opinion is that in the military sphere, Belarus indeed does not have its own sovereignty. Because there has already been a long-term process of building a single state with the Russians,” the general said.

Belarusian-Russian exercises testify to this, as well as the fact that there are no obstacles to Russian military personnel on the territory of Belarus. In particular, Ukrainian intelligence recorded trips by Russian military in civilian clothes to study road conditions in order to plan the rapid transfer of forces.

“Even more so after the signing of joint agreements, changes to the military doctrine, and the creation of a joint grouping of troops — all this has long indicated that, in fact, unfortunately, in this sphere, Belarus has lost its sovereignty. I mean in the military sphere and the activities of special services,” Pavlenko added.

What is Lukashenko’s "worst nightmare"

As forum moderator Rena Marutian from the Institute of National Security noted, Belarusian special services are now involved in special operations against Ukraine.

“These may be cyber operations and information-psychological operations. Overall, how dangerous are these hybrid challenges for the northern regions of Ukraine?” she asked.

According to Pavlenko, the special services of Belarus are fully controlled by the Russians, but they are much weaker. In particular, they specialize not so much in attacks as in intelligence gathering in cyberspace, including across Europe and in Ukraine’s border regions.

“There is a threat, but it comes not from the Belarusian regime, but from the aggressor state,” explained the former deputy head of the HUR.

Despite this, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko certainly has weak spots. His worst nightmare is being forced into direct participation of Belarus in hostilities or any provocations.

Therefore, he is trying to create conditions that would constantly prove to Vladimir Putin that he is useful to him. For example, in the production of missiles, radio electronics, chassis for strategic forces, or fuel — especially under conditions of Ukrainian deep strikes on enemy infrastructure.

Secondly, Putin is not fighting for the territories of Ukraine or Belarus, but for constructing rules of the game for others that will allow Russians to gain economic benefits, Pavlenko noted. And even Belarusian special services previously had more tasks related to economic issues, in order to promote their products to markets.

Lukashenko’s regime has entered conditions in which it strongly depends on imports, exports, and other economic factors. And now it increasingly adopts Russian practices.

“Therefore, in his worst nightmare he sees that he will receive some sort of task to start escalation. And to avoid this, he prefers the development of the economy, which, according to expert estimates, has lost half of its projected growth for 2026 — and this is just the beginning,” Pavlenko added.

Photo from the IV Ostrogski Forum 2025, provided by the Main Intelligence Directorate

Why Ukraine does not strike targets in Belarus

Even though Belarus is in fact an ally of the Russian Federation in its aggressive war, Ukraine does not strike targets on Belarusian territory. Although intelligence has identified all targets, studied them, and compiled a separate log for each one.

“Here, the question is expediency. Back in Soviet times, missile roads were built from Belarus to the Chernivtsi region of Ukraine. And should we give Putin an extra reason to pressure the Belarusian regime to declare mobilization and fully enter the war? At the moment, we consider that inexpedient,” Pavlenko explained.

At the same time, Lukashenko fears the presence of Russians and militarization, because society gradually gets used to it — as was once the case in Ukrainian Crimea. And if Russian interference becomes excessive, he may simply lose power.

“He does everything for the sake of power, not for the sake of helping Putin. Time, of course, is not working in our favor. The Russians know how to do this gradually, how to build their identity, retain the language. We hope that democracy will eventually prevail there,” the general summarized.

Belarus supports Russia in its war against Ukraine

As a reminder, since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Belarus has openly supported aggression against Ukraine, providing Moscow with military infrastructure, airfields, and logistical assistance.

The regime of the self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, is also accused of involvement in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied territories.

In September of this year, joint military exercises with Russia took place on the territory of Belarus, lasting two weeks.

Recently, Lukashenko confirmed that in December, the Russian Oreshnik missile system will be placed on combat duty.

He also threatened that Belarus “will deliver a strike” if the situation “develops badly.”

At the same time, Belarus claims it is ready to deploy its “peacekeeping” troops in Ukraine if there is a “corresponding decision.”