Kremlin's capacity to aid Assad questioned: ISW assessment
Photo: Russia is unlikely to be able to provide more aid to the Syrian army (Getty Images)
Russia has promised to supply more weapons to Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, but the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) doubts Moscow’s capacity to increase military aid, according to ISW’s recent assessment.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on November 29 that the Syrian opposition's offensive is a “violation of Syria’s sovereignty” and emphasized Russia’s support for restoring “constitutional order” in the country.
On November 30, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke by phone with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Both expressed serious concern over the “dangerous developments” in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces.
The ministers agreed to coordinate efforts to stabilize the situation as part of the Syrian peace process launched by Russia, Turkey, and Iran in December 2016.
That same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi initiated a phone conversation with Lavrov to discuss Syria's situation.
Analysts from ISW believe that Russia is unlikely to provide significant additional support to Syria due to its ongoing war in Ukraine, which remains Moscow’s top priority.
“It remains unclear whether the Kremlin will be able to deploy additional assets to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime given the high tempo and operational requirements for Russia to continue conducting operations in Ukraine – the Kremlin’s priority theater,” the report stated.
ISW noted that in 2022, Russia withdrew S-300 air defense systems from Syria for use in Ukraine. That same year, analysts observed the withdrawal of Russian troops and Wagner Group mercenaries from Syria.
Escalation in Syria
This week, a new phase of the Syrian civil war began after a four-year lull. Thousands of rebels, led by Islamists from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, launched an offensive on Aleppo.
After several days of fighting, Assad’s forces announced a withdrawal from Aleppo, claiming it was to prepare for a counteroffensive. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Russia has promised urgent military aid to Assad's regime.
More about the situation in Syria and how Russia is helping Assad – in RBC-Ukraine's article.
