Kremlin likely prepares for possible mobilization and unrest - ISW
Propaganda for joining the army in Russia remains strong (photo: Getty Images)
The Kremlin is creating conditions for a possible mobilization and is preparing for potential unrest in Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Who was allowed to serve under contract?
On July 22, the Russian State Duma passed a bill that allows citizens with an unexpunged criminal record – including for drug trafficking and participation in organized criminal groups – to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense during formal periods of mobilization.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Army General Viktor Goremykin, stated on the same day that the law will expand the number of Russians fit for military service and facilitate efforts to recruit fighters for the war against Ukraine in 2026.
What Rosgvardia is preparing
On July 21, Rosgvardia, the militarized internal security structure of Russia, published proposed amendments that expand civil defense regulations – ostensibly to protect Russian society from unspecified dangers during mobilization, martial law, and in wartime conditions.
What Putin already allowed earlier
In November 2025, President Putin signed a law allowing him to send reservists to combat zones without declaring mobilization. At the time, ISW analysts already assessed that the Kremlin would likely use this law to conduct phased partial call-ups of reservists.
Analysts' conclusion
According to ISW's assessment, the Kremlin is creating conditions for declaring formal mobilization and potential introduction of martial law within Russia itself, preparing for possible civil unrest – since mobilization remains extremely unpopular among Russian society.
Analysts note that the decision on mobilization remains highly personal for Putin and ultimately depends on his own perception of the situation on the front and the stability of the Kremlin. It is currently unclear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future and what exactly a mobilization announcement might look like.
According to the Center for Countering Disinformation estimates, Russia is preparing a mobilization of over 500,000 people in the autumn – some of them will be sent directly to the front in Ukraine.
According to President Zelenskyy, Russia may resort to a new wave of mobilization after the elections to the State Duma – this would allow it to avoid significant expenditures on contract soldiers. The GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) also reported that Russia is covertly preparing a general mobilization to continue the war, avoiding public mentions of it due to public discontent.
In addition, it was reported that authorities in Russian regions are demanding that entrepreneurs provide people for the war against Ukraine, and those who are not ready to do so are being offered to pay severance money.
