ISW forecasts future of Russian military bases in Syria
The fate of several Russian military bases in Syria remains unclear (Illustrative photo: Getty Images)
Russia's further plans regarding its military units stationed in Syria remain unclear. Moscow has agreed to maintain its bases in western Syria, but is withdrawing troops from other locations in the country, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, rumors among Russian soldiers suggest that the Kremlin and unspecified Syrian entities have agreed to keep up to 3,000 Russian military personnel at the port of Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia.
Ukrainian intelligence also reports that Russian soldiers stationed at the Tartus port and Hmeimim airbase, as well as on nearby ships in the region, are facing issues with drinking water and food supplies. They are awaiting deliveries of provisions by military transport aircraft, which are also involved in the evacuation of Russian military assets from Syria.
"Reports that Russian military personnel are awaiting additional food supplies suggest that the Kremlin may not plan or is unable to fully evacuate the bases in the immediate future," ISW suggests.
On December 15, OSINT analyst MT Anderson reported that satellite imagery showed the Russian frigates Admiral Golovko and Admiral Gorshkov-class frigate still stationed about 15 kilometers from the port of Tartus. However, the satellite images did not show other Russian vessels that had recently been operating in the open Mediterranean Sea.
According to Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Russian forces are accompanying unidentified armed groups, who had fought against Bashar al-Assad's regime, as they withdraw from remote areas of Syria, likely heading toward the western coast.
On December 17, Syrian media reported that Russian forces had withdrawn from the Tiyas airbase (west of Palmyra and in Homs Governorate) toward the Hmeimim airbase.
On December 14, Ukrainian intelligence reported that some Russian soldiers were waiting at the Tiyas airbase while a Russian military commander attempted to negotiate security guarantees for the soldiers with military contingents from other unspecified countries.
According to reports, Russia has also recently withdrawn its forces from several bases in the Manbij and Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) areas in northern Syria, amid an offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) supported by Türkiye.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is likely to withdraw its forces from its last major base in northern Syria, in Qamishli, as Türkiye and various groups operating in Syria, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, seem unwilling to allow Russia to remain there.
On December 15, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler also suggested supporting Russia's consolidation in Khmeimim and Tartus, indicating that Türkiye would not back other Russian bases in the region.
Assad's regime's fall and the fate of Russian bases in Syria
At the beginning of December, fighters from the Islamic group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham captured most of the major cities in Syria, including the capital, Damascus. President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia with his family.
The Kremlin acknowledged the significant instability in Syria and noted that it is still too early to discuss the future of Russia's military bases in the country.
According to media reports, the Kremlin will try to maintain its military presence in Khmeimim and Tartus.
The UK's Ministry of Defence does not rule out the possibility that Russia will attempt to establish diplomatic relations with all interested parties to ensure security guarantees for its military bases in Syria.
