ISW explains why trust in Putin among Russians increased while trust in local authorities decreased

In particular, the independent Russian research organization Levada Center published the results of a monthly survey conducted in September 2024 on October 24.

According to the study:

• 43% of respondents trust local government entities;
• 69% of respondents trust the Russian military;
• 80% of respondents trust Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A similar survey by the Levada Center in September 2023 showed:

• 45% trusted local government entities;
• 72% trusted the Russian military;
• 76% trusted Putin.

The data from these surveys indicate that Putin continues to rely on efforts related to crypto-mobilization at the local government level. In this way, he diverts dissatisfaction with Russia's mobilization practices away from himself and the federal government, shifting negative sentiments toward local officials. Meanwhile, the dictator avoids the need to announce a general mobilization.

Moreover, the slight decline in trust toward local officials and the increase in trust toward Putin indicate that the Russian President's attempts to divert dissatisfaction away from himself and make lower-level officials scapegoats for issues related to Ukraine may be effective.

"ISW continues to assess that Putin will continue to instruct local government authorities to maintain crypto-mobilization efforts until federal-level mobilization efforts are necessary to achieve operational requirements in Ukraine," the analysts concluded.

Last month, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War stated that the announcement of a new wave of mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

According to their report, Putin fears that mobilization poses a direct threat to the stability of his regime.