Iran planned ballistic missile strike on Ukraine — NYT
Photo: Iran planned to launch ballistic missiles (tasnimnews.co)
Iran considered launching a missile strike against a Ukrainian seaport in response to an attack on one of its ships in the Caspian Sea, according to The New York Times.
Background
On Saturday, Ukraine struck an Iranian commercial cargo ship in the Caspian Sea. One civilian sailor was killed in the attack, and another crew member was injured.
Kyiv accused Iran and Russia of mutually supporting each other’s military operations. Following the attack, Iranian officials vowed to retaliate.
Sources familiar with intelligence reports told the agency that Iran could have launched a ballistic missile with a small warhead at Ukraine. The target would have been symbolic—intended to cause relatively minor damage.
According to other officials, one of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports could have been a likely target.
Any missile launched from Iran toward Ukraine would trigger a sharp escalation. This is particularly risky given Tehran’s alliance with Russia and the tensions between Iran and Ukraine.
How conflict was defused
Iranian officials had hoped to end the conflict with a retaliatory strike of their own. At the same time, Western diplomats warned that Ukraine’s response would be difficult to predict.
On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the attack on the ship a violation of the UN Charter. According to him, the attack aimed to drag Europe into Iran’s war against the United States.
This incident "cannot go unanswered," Araghchi wrote on social media.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha spoke with Araghchi.
Following the conversation, the publication reports, the Iranian foreign minister stated that the Ukrainian minister had described the attack on the ship as unintentional.
"Iran does not seek escalation either, but made clear any attack on our citizens or interests is unacceptable. There must be restitution for losses," Araghchi wrote.
On the same day, Iran’s Foreign Minister spoke with the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas. The two sides discussed ways to reduce tensions in the region.
Why Iran exercised restraint
Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst close to the Iranian government, said that some Iranian politicians had called for a retaliatory strike against Ukraine. Others, however, advised restraint.
"Ukraine is not a small, insignificant country. It has warfare experience, and logistical support from America and Europe. We won’t gain anything by creating a new front in the war," Rahmati said.
Ukrainian acting Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called his Iranian counterpart immediately after Tehran threatened to strike Ukraine.
He emphasized that Kyiv’s actions are aimed solely at defending against Russian aggression and called on Iran to stop supporting Russia’s war.
Following this, Tehran confirmed that it does not seek an escalation with Ukraine. At the same time, Iran stressed that the damage inflicted on its vessel must be compensated.
