How close is Elon Musk to nuclear weapons control

Content

• Are nuclear weapons really safe
• Can nuclear codes be cracked
• Where is the real nuclear risk
• Two trillion dollars under Musk's control

Are nuclear weapons really safe

The United States has one of the most powerful nuclear arsenals in the world, capable of destroying the entire civilization several times over. Formally, only the president has the authority to order the launch of nuclear missiles, but DOGE is gradually approaching these systems.

At a press conference on February 7, Trump said he had instructed Musk and DOGE to optimize Pentagon spending. Gaining access to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) no longer seems impossible.

However, experts say that it is almost impossible to connect to nuclear control systems through a regular computer connected to the DOE network.

"I don't imagine Musk could do it. The probability is zero. I just don't understand how this can happen," said one State Department official, who requested anonymity.

Launching a nuclear weapon requires not only access to the system but also the physical presence of operators. For example, on a submarine, the crew must perform a series of actions to launch a missile.

In intercontinental ballistic missile silos, officers are required to turn special keys. Even if Musk or his collaborators wanted to gain control, they would have to literally infiltrate military bases, submarines, or bombers.

Estimated global stockpile of nuclear warheads (photo: Federation of American Scientists)

Can nuclear codes be cracked

The command systems of the US nuclear arsenal are not connected to the Internet and operate in a closed network created specifically for nuclear forces. They are also very outdated: many of them run on equipment from the 1960s and 1970s.

The Pentagon is slowly modernizing them, but the process is difficult. For example, only in 2019 did the US Air Force stop using 8-inch floppy disks from the 1970s to run nuclear computers.

"Most of these systems are outdated technologies. I'm much more worried that these systems could simply fail in a crisis situation," says the State Department official.

In addition, there is a myth in popular culture that American nuclear missiles will automatically launch in the event of an attack. However, this is not the case: the final decision always rests with the president, and the order to launch must be confirmed by several high-ranking military officials.

Some nuclear weapons experts are also skeptical of the idea that modern systems can be hacked, believing that they are not modern enough to do so.

But there is a more realistic way Musk could gain access to nuclear weapons: through Trump.

"If Musk really wants to seize control, all he has to do is convince Trump that a nuclear war is inevitable. And given his wealth and Trump's gullibility, that's not such a difficult task," said Alex Wellerstein, an associate professor at the Stevens Institute of Technology.

To order a nuclear strike, the president must use the Nuclear Suitcase, a leather and aluminum suitcase that is always with him. Inside is communication equipment that allows him to contact the National Military Command Center in the Pentagon.

A military aide carries a briefcase known as a "nuclear suitcase" outside the White House, July 2021 (photo: Britannica)

To prove his identity, the president must use a "Biscuit," a laminated card with authentication codes updated daily by the National Security Agency.

"The president has no direct launch codes. He only has a code that confirms his identity," the State Department official explains.

Thus, there are two ways for Musk: either to get the Biscuit and bypass the security system, or simply to convince Trump to say the right code.

"Outside of these options, he has no chance," the source summarizes.

But in a world where the lines between power, money, and technology are becoming increasingly blurred, even such scenarios no longer seem so impossible.

The rules governing the use of nuclear weapons can change at any time - and this is one of the most disturbing aspects of what is happening. The so-called "Nuclear Suitcase" and the "Biscuit" code card exist only because they were once recognized as the best way to transmit a presidential order to launch missiles. But Donald Trump can revise this process at any time and for any reason.

As nuclear weapons expert Alex Wellerstein explains, the rules for access to nuclear systems are extremely strict. They include requirements for security clearances, reliability checks, and much more. However, all these regulations are set by the executive branch and can be changed by the president. In the past, some U.S. leaders have already delegated authority to use nuclear weapons to the military.

Alex Wellerstein, historian, associate professor at the Stevens Institute of Technology (photo: CNN)

For example, President Dwight Eisenhower authorized commanders in the Pacific to order nuclear strikes under certain circumstances. This practice was continued by John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.

Now, the fact that DOGE employees - many of whom do not have the necessary security clearances - have already gained access to classified systems is worrisome.

Even in the worst-case scenario, no one can simply push a big red button and open a missile silo. "The president has only the power, not the technical ability," - explains a State Department official. "The launch of a nuclear weapon is impossible without the participation of dozens of people."

In theory, any one of these people-whether an officer on a submarine or a missile silo operator-could break the chain of command.

"All these scenarios are based on the assumption that the military will obey orders. I would like to believe that they will refuse. But this is also an extremely difficult decision," Wellerstein says.

Where is the real nuclear risk

The real threat comes not so much from Musk's alleged hacker access to the launch codes, but from who is now inside the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy.

Some DOGE employees are already causing concern. For example, one of them, Edward Corristin, has ties to cybercrime and has operated websites in Russia in the past. In a normal situation, such people would never be given access to classified information. But now they are working in structures that oversee national security.

"Every DOGE employee is a potential vulnerability in the nuclear data protection system," a State Department source said. This is especially true for the personal information of people with security clearances. Such information is a godsend for Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies, which can use it to blackmail officials.

In addition, nuclear weapons leave behind radioactive waste. The United States has not yet eliminated the consequences of the Manhattan Project, and many Americans continue to suffer from radiation contamination.

Under President Joe Biden, the Department of Energy has allocated $8.2 billion to clean up areas affected by US nuclear programs. But now there are fears that Musk and DOGE may consider this "unnecessary environmental activism."

Obelisk at the site of the first atomic bomb test, Alamogordo Test Site (photo: Wikimedia)

Two trillion dollars under Musk's control

The United States is currently in the process of a large-scale modernization of its nuclear forces. This project was launched under Barack Obama and will last 25 years. The country will spend nearly $2 trillion on it, which will be used to build new missile silos, upgrade the nuclear arsenal, modernize computer systems, and build new nuclear submarines.

This is a huge budget that can easily become a target for corruption and fraud. And now it is Musk and DOGE who are responsible for its audit.

Read also that Elon Musk wants to buy OpenAI for a huge sum of money.