Extreme heat wave expected worldwide, UN warns
Photo: The UN has named the year when Earth could break the temperature record (Getty Images)
A record-breaking hot year on the planet is almost inevitable by 2030 due to the worsening climate crisis, according to The Guardian.
New temperature record likelihood increasing
According to a report prepared for the UN’s World Meteorological Organization by the UK Met Office, there is an 86% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed the figures for 2024 and become the hottest on record.
There is a 75% probability that the average global temperature over the next five years will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C.
El Niño could accelerate warming
Scientists warn that the expected return of the El Niño phenomenon could further push global temperatures upward.
According to forecasts, the world could break a new temperature record as early as 2027.
Dr. Leon Hermanson, one of the report’s authors, noted that it is the combination of natural climate cycles and overall warming that increases the risk of new extreme records.
Emissions and global consequences
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, trapping more and more heat and triggering extreme weather events.
Record-breaking heat this week has hit the UK and Europe.
Scientists estimate that global warming is already claiming one human life every minute, and that number will rise unless emissions are reduced.
UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell addresses the issue directly: the latest heatwave in Europe is a stark reminder of the growing consequences of the climate crisis—both human and economic. The situation is similar in India and other parts of Asia.
"Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster," he emphasizes.
The scientist adds that clean energy is already becoming cheaper than fossil fuels and can be produced more quickly.
Paris Agreement's limits at risk
Scientists have repeatedly warned that warming beyond 1.5°C risks causing more severe heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods, and making it harder for communities to adapt. However, every fraction of a degree of warming avoided reduces the damage.
The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is assessed over 20 years but is now unlikely to be met.
El Niño
El Niño causes changes in Pacific Ocean winds that release heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere.
According to the latest forecast, the probability of this phenomenon occurring from December 2026 to February 2027 is 96%, and the chance of a super El Niño is 35%.
"There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year," concludes Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report.
Heat in Ukraine
Forecasters warn that the summer of 2026 will be hot, a couple of degrees warmer than normal.
Ukraine is no exception. Despite the rains in recent weeks, a heatwave is forecast for Ukraine this summer.
According to Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the former head of Ukrenergo, the prolonged heatwave in Ukraine, with temperatures exceeding 35°C, will inevitably lead to electricity consumption restrictions due to damage to the power generation infrastructure; imports alone will not be sufficient.
