Russia's announcement of withdrawal from Kherson region a mistake? Expert's opinion

What started it all

Today, November 13, Russian Telegram channels and pro-Kremlin news sites reported that the Dnipro troop group will be transferred to more advantageous positions east of the Dnipro.

"Having assessed the current situation, the command of the Dnipro group decided to redeploy troops to more advantageous positions east of the Dnipro River. After regrouping, the Dnipro will release part of the forces that will be used for offensives in other directions," reports Russian media regarding a statement Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

But in a fairly short period, propaganda began to mass-post a statement about the so-called cancellation of the news, bringing an apology.

Photo: Russian propaganda announced the regrouping of troops in the Kherson region, and then cancelled the news (Getty Images)

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation did not take long to react. They claim that the news about the regrouping was a so-called provocation. They said that someone unknown allegedly sent a false message on behalf of the press center of their department.

Moreover, information about the so-called Ukrainian trail began to spread through Russian Telegram channels during the publication of the notice on the withdrawal of troops.

"RIA Novosti could have received information about the transfer of troops from a fake account of the Ministry of Defense, which is probably run from the territory of Ukraine," wrote the pro-Kremlin mass media.

It is about a group that operates in the Kherson region

It is worth noting that the Dnipro army group of the Russian Federation is responsible for the occupation of the left-bank part of the Kherson region. Recently, the commander of the Airborne Forces and a native of Donbas Mikhail Teplinsky was appointed as its new commander instead of Colonel-General Oleg Makarevich.

The Ukrainian military previously named the likely reason for such a rotation to the occupiers. As Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, explained, usually such appointments take place when the occupiers believe that tactics and strategy need to be changed.

In turn, the analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War called Makarevich's release an indication that the Kremlin or the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation may be sufficiently concerned and skeptical about his ability to repel the recent larger-than-usual ground operation of Ukraine on the left bank of the Kherson region.

Was the news about the regrouping of the occupiers in the Kherson region a mistake?

RBC-Ukraine learned the expert opinion of the head of the Center for Military and Legal Research Oleksandr Musiienko. He believes that such a message was being prepared on the Russian side, but was published prematurely today.

"That is, they had a failure. This is their internal message, which indicates that the Russian Federation may be preparing to withdraw from certain defensive positions," Musiienko says.

The occupiers on the left bank of the Kherson region had a rather unfavorable situation. Ukrainian forces continue to conduct offensive actions there, they are already transferring some equipment, forces, and means to expand the bridgehead. Read more about this in the article "80 km to Crimea. What is happening on the left bank of the Kherson Region under the continuous control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine".

"And the Russian troops cannot knock us out of the occupied positions, and on the contrary, we are expanding this bridgehead. And we can already talk about creating problems with logistics for the occupiers at certain points. For example, at the entrances to Nova Kakhovka. And what they changed command, tried to change the situation for the better, but it does not change," says Musiienko.

At the same time, Russia is involved in serious battles in the Avdiivka direction, in the Kupiansk region. And there the occupiers suffer losses, redeploy their forces, and concentrate.

"Therefore, despite strengthening their positions on the left bank of the Kherson region, they are unable to hold back our advance. It is slow, but it is going. And of course, strikes were added to the rear of the Russian troops, in search of their headquarters, their command," the expert explains.

According to the interlocutor, such purposeful work of the Ukrainian forces on the left bank is currently underway. We are talking about a flank operation. And it is not excluded that under the pressure of the Ukrainian forces, the Russian troops can withdraw to certain positions.

Photo: the occupiers can retreat beyond Radensk in case of regrouping on the left bank of the Kherson region (Google Maps)

"For example, to Radensk. Perhaps further east beyond Radensk and try to organize defense from there. That is, it seems to me that this (message from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation - ed.) was premature. A false start of this news, of what should have been announced," concludes the expert.

The movement of the occupiers has not yet been recorded

The National Resistance Center of Ukraine (NRCU) also commented on the situation, noting that the regrouping of troops announced by the Russians has not been recorded so far.

The NRCU notes that this may be an enemy operation aimed at distracting the Defense Forces of Ukraine, which is why the aggressor announced the so-called withdrawal of his troops from the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region.

"Currently, according to local information, no relevant movements of enemy troops have been recorded. Therefore, we can state that an information operation against Ukraine is currently taking place," the National Resistance Center of Ukraine says.

However, they add that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kherson region is a matter of time.