Eurovision 2026: When to watch and Ukraine’s chances according to bookmakers
When will Eurovision 2026 take place (photo: Getty Images)
The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 has not started yet, but bookmakers are already actively forming predictions. They have identified favorites, assessed countries’ chances, and separately highlighted those who are almost guaranteed to reach the final.
RBC-Ukraine reports when to watch Eurovision, who is currently in the top rankings, and what predictions are being made for Ukraine.
When to watch Eurovision 2026
The 70th anniversary contest will take place in Vienna. Austria will host the show for the third time after winning in 2025.
Viewers will see:
- May 12 — first semi-final
- May 14 — second semi-final
- May 16 — final
This year, 35 countries will participate, the lowest number in recent years. The Netherlands, Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, and Iceland withdrew after the EBU decided to keep Israel in the contest.
Bookmakers’ predictions for the Eurovision winner
Finland is currently considered the main favorite, with a 31% chance of winning.
Next in the list are:
- France — about 11%
- Denmark — around 10%
- Australia — 8%
- Greece — 8%
Israel is predicted to place sixth, Sweden seventh, and Romania eighth.
Bookmakers’ predictions (screenshot)
Ukraine is currently not given very high chances of winning. It is ranked ninth in the bookmakers’ table and has only 3%.
However, it is important to understand that these are only initial predictions. After the first rehearsals and live performances, the odds always change.
Ukraine’s chances in the semi-final
The forecasts for the semi-finals are quite different. Ukraine will perform in the second semi-final, and bookmakers are significantly more optimistic here. The chances of Ukraine reaching the final are estimated at around 90–91%.
In its semi-final, Ukraine is among the top three favorites together with Australia and Denmark. Romania, Cyprus, and Bulgaria also have relatively high chances.
Bookmakers’ predictions for the second Eurovision semi-final (screenshot)
This means that, according to current forecasts, Ukraine is almost guaranteed to reach the final, despite not holding the highest position in the overall ranking.
What is known about LELEKA and when to watch Ukraine’s performance
Ukraine’s representative at Eurovision is singer LELÉKA. She won the National Selection final on February 7, receiving maximum points from both the jury and the audience.
The artist’s real name is Viktoriia Kornikova. She was born in the Donetsk region, studied in Kyiv, and later continued her music education in Germany. There, she earned a bachelor’s degree in jazz vocals and a master’s degree in composition.
It was precisely her European experience that shaped her unique style. The LELÉKA project combines Ukrainian folklore, jazz, and modern electronic music. Her music often sounds like a dialogue between tradition and the present.
The band LELÉKA was founded in 2016 in Berlin. For the artist, it was a way to stay connected to Ukraine even while living abroad. She took part in charity concerts and promoted Ukrainian culture outside the country.
LELÉKA (photo: instagram.com/leleka_music)
At the contest, LELÉKA will present the song “Ridnym”. The idea for the composition emerged in 2022 against the backdrop of the full-scale war. It is a song about connection with loved ones, memory, and the feeling of home that does not disappear even at a distance.
LELÉKA will perform in the second semi-final on May 14. That is when it will become clear whether LELÉKA can not only confirm bookmakers’ predictions but also raise Ukraine significantly higher in the overall ranking.
