Can Russia repeat last year's offensive moves: Expert's opinion
Illustrative photo (Photo: Getty Images)
Russia has certain intentions for launching an offensive after the fall, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have significantly better adapted to winter conditions than the Russians. Furthermore, a repeat of what happened in Bahmut won't occur, according to a statement from the military-political expert of the Information Resistance group, Oleksandr Kovalenko.
What preceded this
The Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, acknowledges that advancing will be more challenging in cold, wet, and muddy conditions. However, he assured that the counteroffensive would continue, nonetheless.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) state that winter frosts are favorable for mechanized units. And if we rely on Budanov's words, the Ukrainian counteroffensive will continue one way or another.
Ukrainian Armed Forces have significantly better adapted to winter conditions than the Russians
The end of offensive operations in 2022 came in October-November when Ukrainian Defense Forces regained part of the captured territory in the east, including Kherson and the right-bank part of the region. With the onset of winter cold, the enemy launched an attack on Bakhmut and Soledar, which had been held for several months.
Oleksandr Kovalenko explains that there are different methods of conducting military operations, as demonstrated in the past year. Despite the frost, Ukrainian forces effectively defended themselves, wearing down the enemy. Russians had a tough time advancing on Bakhmut and Selydove, suffering significant losses. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have adapted much better to winter conditions than the Russians.
A repetition of what happened in Bakhmut won't occur
Regarding whether Russia plans a winter offensive and with what forces and means, it's currently difficult to say. However, judging by their ambitions, at the very least, there are intentions for the Lyman-Kupiansk axis.
"Although their capabilities are limited, even more than in 2022. So, I don't see the prospect of any large-scale offensive actions on their part. Even along narrow directions, there are doubts. Attempts are possible, but a repetition of what happened in Bakhmut won't happen," Kovalenko told RBC-Ukraine.
More on the impact of weather on the front and whether rains or frost can stop the Ukrainian Armed Forces can be found in RBC-Ukraine article titled "Weather factor: Will rains affect the front and halt Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance?".
