Bracing for Russian offensive: Is Zaporizhzhia at risk? Expert unveils enemy's plans
Ukrainian Armed Forces in anticipation of Russian assaults in Zaporizhzhia region (Getty Images)
The situation in the Zaporizhzhia region is becoming increasingly tense. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are expecting an assault by Russian forces any day now, yet it remains unclear what scale these offensive actions might take in this direction, which until recently had been relatively calm compared to Donetsk.
Further details on Russia’s intentions and direct threats to Zaporizhzhia can be found in the RBC-Ukraine report below.
Contents
- Situation in Zaporizhzhia direction
- Enemy's plans and whether there is threat of Zaporizhzhia being captured
- Potential danger for Dnipropetrovsk region
Situation in Zaporizhzhia direction
At the beginning of October this year, occupation forces resumed active operations in the Zaporizhzhia region. According to Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, Russian forces may begin assaults in this area soon, and it’s a matter of days rather than weeks.
Voloshyn indicated that Russian forces are deploying trained assault groups for an offensive in the region, intending to use armored vehicles and a significant number of drones, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
At this stage, it is unknown whether these will be unified assaults or individual attacks. However, for storming operations, the enemy is preparing both armored groups and lighter vehicles (buggies, motorcycles).
By the end of October, Voloshyn warned that the enemy had concentrated around 200,000 troops in the Southern Command area. At that time, he said that the enemy had not made significant advances in the south.
Although Putin’s army managed to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near the village of Levadne in Zaporizhzhia and advanced near Novodarivka, the DeepState project marked the former as occupied on its map.
The Russians significantly outnumber the Ukrainian forces. In the area stretching from Huliaipole towards Orikhiv, the enemy has amassed considerable manpower and equipment. Additionally, enemy reconnaissance and sabotage activities have intensified in recent times. According to sources who spoke to RBC-Ukraine, possible enemy strike directions could include Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and Kamianske.
Map: possible directions of Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia region (deepstatemap)
An indicator of the occupiers’ preparations for an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region is the increase in airstrikes — up by 30-40% in recent weeks, Voloshyn reported.
Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies, told RBC-Ukraine that the enemy is indeed maneuvering its forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and the threat is real.
“After Russian forces moved part of their group from Zaporizhzhia to the Kursk region, they reassembled and regrouped. Now, they have sent reinforcements as much as possible and are preparing for offensive and assault actions in Zaporizhzhia,” Musiienko said.
Enemy's plans and whether there is threat of Zaporizhzhia being captured
According to Musiienko, the current goal of the enemy is likely to stretch Ukraine’s Defense Forces, drawing them away from the Kursk region and preventing the transfer of additional AFU forces to the Pokrovsk and Kurakhivka directions, where the enemy is actively advancing.
"Thus, from a military standpoint, the enemy intends to launch a diversionary strike combined with offensive actions that may achieve tactical successes. This is not a strategic offensive aimed at surrounding or capturing Zaporizhzhia itself,” Musiienko explained.
However, he emphasized that the risks are significant. The enemy’s aim now is to test Ukrainian defensive lines, find weak spots, and continue pushing forward.
"There also seems to be a political and military-political objective. Perhaps the aggressor wants to show that they haven’t abandoned plans to capture Zaporizhzhia. But I believe this is merely posturing for potential future negotiations,” Musiienko speculated.
He suggested that Russians are aware of the changing situation as Donald Trump is expected to return to the White House. They may therefore be preparing to have certain "cards" for negotiations, using pressure in the Zaporizhzhia direction as a means.
Potential danger for Dnipropetrovsk region
Moscow’s priority remains the full capture of Donetsk. However, as the Russians continue their offensive on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fronts, the distance from these active areas to the Dnipropetrovsk border could decrease.
Musiienko said that for now, Ukrainian forces are successfully holding the enemy back on the Kurakhivka front. Additionally, the Russians lack the strength to advance simultaneously in the Pokrovsk direction.
"So, I wouldn’t focus on the Dnipropetrovsk region right now. If we calculate the enemy’s progress since October 2023, when Russian forces began their eastern offensive, it’s clear that their gains are relatively minor compared to the time it took them to achieve them," he explained.
Nonetheless, the expert stressed the importance of building fortifications and having equipped defensive positions and fortified areas within the Dnipropetrovsk region.
"But should there be panic that the enemy will invade the Dnipropetrovsk region soon? I don’t think so. So far, they are being held back effectively in the Donetsk region," he concluded.
Sources: statements by Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn, DeepState, and an exclusive comment by Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.
For more information on the battlefield situation, see RBC-Ukraine’s report "Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and new threat in the south: What's happening on the frontline."
