Between Kyiv and Moscow: Impact of Trump’s 'shuttle diplomacy'
US President Donald Trump (photo: Getty Images)
Negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine moved into a practical phase last week after meetings in Jeddah and Moscow. Read the material below on the consequences of these contacts and expectations for the foreseeable future.
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Last week was marked by the transition of negotiations on ending the war into a practical phase. The key event in the context of ending the war was the meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The Ukrainian and American delegations worked together for eight hours to coordinate their positions. From Kyiv’s perspective, the outcome is seen as rather positive - if not a diplomatic victory for Ukraine, then at least a return to the status quo before the dispute between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump in the White House.
In a joint statement following the meeting, it was stated that Ukraine agrees to a 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended “provided that it is accepted and simultaneously implemented by the Russian Federation.”
Ukraine’s proposals
Ukraine entered the negotiations with three main positions: a ceasefire in the air, a ceasefire at sea, and the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war and children. During the negotiations, the US proposed not a partial but a full ceasefire - in exchange for the restoration of aid and the provision of intelligence data.
As a result, Ukraine managed to uphold several key positions, particularly that the ceasefire would be time-limited and would not turn into a frozen conflict. Moreover, the Ukrainian delegation outlined its red lines: Ukraine cannot abandon its ambition to become a NATO member, nor agree to any limitations on the size of its army.
Just as importantly, the narrative that “President Zelenskyy does not want peace” was dismantled. This was precisely the rhetoric Trump had used after their dispute, exerting pressure on Ukraine by suspending aid and blocking intelligence sharing. Both of these US "sanctions" were lifted immediately after the Jeddah meeting.
Ukraine continues to demonstrate its commitment to the idea of a ceasefire. In particular, a national team is being formed in Kyiv to develop the necessary action algorithms for monitoring a potential 30-day ceasefire.
However, it is already clear that further negotiations will be difficult. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated, the issue of a ceasefire is complex because it requires courage and political will. At the same time, the territorial issue will require a challenging dialogue.
“Why? Because a ceasefire will unlock the path for both sides to end the war. And I believe that territories will indeed be the key issue that, once resolved, will allow the war to end,” Zelenskyy emphasized on March 14.
President Zelenskyy also noted that Ukraine’s partners are aware of its "red lines." In particular, Ukraine will not legally recognize Russia’s control over the occupied territories.
Against this backdrop, the agreement on mineral resources has somewhat receded into the background. It is ready for signing, Zelenskyy confirmed. Now, the US must decide when and where to finalize it.
Russia is stalling
Following the meeting in Jeddah, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the "ball is now in their court," referring to Russia. The US promptly reached out to the Russian leadership at various levels. On March 13, Trump’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, visited Moscow.
Over the weekend, there was also a conversation between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
"Many details of the final agreement have already been discussed. Now we will see if Russia agrees, and if not, it will be a very disappointing moment for the entire world," Trump said on March 13.
However, the Kremlin leader is trying to delay the ceasefire. He nearly openly admitted this at a joint press conference on March 14 with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
"The idea itself is correct, and we certainly support it. But there are issues that we need to discuss," Putin said. In particular, this concerns the presence of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region and the monitoring of the future ceasefire. In addition, Putin fears that Ukraine will use the 30 days to strengthen its army with more troops and new military equipment.
"Ukraine said 'yes' to the US ceasefire proposal because Ukraine wants peace. Putin, instead of saying 'yes,' is putting forward various conditions," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha later commented on Putin’s words.
Trump’s reaction to all of this was restrained. The US President stated that he would make the appropriate decisions after Witkoff’s return from Moscow but later postponed his response until Monday. However, in the meantime, the US Treasury Department revoked a previous exemption by the former US administration that had allowed sanctioned Russian banks to process European payments for oil sales. This means that European countries and US allies will no longer be able to purchase Russian oil without facing US sanctions.
Europe’s support
European countries did not stay on the sidelines during the negotiations in Jeddah and were involved indirectly. BBC sources within the UK government report that the Prime Minister’s National Security Adviser, Jonathan Powell, along with his American counterpart Mike Waltz, as well as German and French officials, worked on a plan to establish a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. On the weekend of March 8-9, Powell visited Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy and assist in drafting a ceasefire proposal.
The idea of deploying European troops in Ukraine also gained momentum. On March 11, 2025, a meeting of the chiefs of staff from 30 European countries took place in Paris - almost all NATO members, as well as neutral states such as Ireland, Cyprus, and Austria. Non-European partners, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, joined the meeting remotely. Notably, the US was deliberately not invited, aiming to demonstrate Europe’s ability to address Ukraine’s security independently.
A source from AP involved in organizing the meeting stated that its primary goal was to unite military capabilities to create security guarantees that would deter Russia from violating a potential peace agreement.
According to Bloomberg, each country was asked what they were willing to contribute to the coalition. Those unwilling to send troops to Ukraine were asked if they would consider deploying ground forces in neighboring European countries or what other contributions they could make - such as sending ships, aircraft, tanks, or providing intelligence support. Consultations on these matters will continue this week.
For a longer-term strengthening of Europe’s defense capabilities, defense ministers from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland met in Paris on March 12. Among other things, they agreed to accelerate defense-industrial cooperation projects with Ukraine. This includes designing, developing, producing, jointly procuring, and maintaining military equipment.
However, the question of whether the EU can make strategically important decisions remains open. In this context, the situation regarding the renewal of sanctions against Russia was particularly unpleasant for the European Union. The renewal process occurs every six months, and Hungary regularly abuses its veto power. This time, however, Budapest was especially obstinate. Although the sanctions were ultimately extended a day before the deadline, the incident raises concerns about the EU’s effectiveness even in internal matters. Given Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán’s ties to Putin and Trump, new hostile actions from him can be expected in the near future, making it crucial to find ways to counter them.
Sources: statements from Ukrainian and American politicians, as well as reports from BBC, AP, and Bloomberg.
