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Avdiivka will become trap for Russians - Military expert's overview

Avdiivka will become trap for Russians - Military expert's overview Ukrainian troops will be in positional defense in the coming weeks (Photo: Getty Images)

Russian troops are advancing towards Avdiivka, achieving partial success. However, it is not ruled out that the southern industrial zone may become a trap for them.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group, commented to RBC-Ukraine on the situation on the front and what could be a turning point in the south.

About the situation in Avdiivka

The situation in Avdiivka may develop quite unpredictably. The Russians have moved towards the southern industrial zone. It was a mighty fortification, significantly damaged by the enemy's artillery strikes. According to the latest information, hostilities are ongoing, and it is possible that the industrial zone has not been ultimately captured.

Behind it is the private sector, but our positions are also there. Entering the development won't be easy. Moreover, they will be like an open book in the industrial zone. Perhaps this is where we will hold them to destroy the forces breaking into the private sector systematically. The question here is different. Is this the fall of the "hole," or is it a trap for the Russians to settle there and "endure."

About the situation near Kupiansk

Since summer, the Russians have been trying to capture the village of Synkivka to gain a convenient foothold on Kupiansk. But all this time, they have not had much success. I don't think they will achieve it anytime soon, especially considering the enemy has deployed many resources from the Luhansk region to Avdiivka.

The Center group operating in the Lyman direction will be weakened and unable to push as forcefully as it was in the summer. This will allow us to redistribute our resources to strengthen the defense of Kupiansk if necessary. Of course, the West group, responsible for the Kupiansk direction, will try to break through our defenses, but I don't see any special prospects by the end of the year.

About the situation near Bakhmut

The enemy has switched to counterattacks, and our troops are in positional defense. The Russians will press until they run out of resources. For assaults near Bakhmut, they brought in units from the northern sector, some reserve that may suddenly appear; they don't have it.

In general, the military actions follow the logic of the past months. It was the same when we started moving towards Klishchiivka and Andriivka. First, we liberated the villages; then, the Russians started a wave of counterattacks. For a few weeks, they tried to repel, but they were exhausted and withdrew to regroup, after which we moved to the left of the railway. Then again, enemy counterattacks began, and now we are watching the continuation of this wave.

About the situation on the left bank of the Kherson region

Our troops hold several bridgeheads. The turning point will come when the main logistical arteries are physically cut off. If we talk about the occupied Oleshky, it is enough to cut the roads R57, E97, or T2206. After that, the logistics on the left bank will be disrupted, preventing resistance from the Russians and limiting their mobility and maneuverability. It will end with their retreat to the Radenske line or even further south.

But the main turning point will be the destruction of the Crimean Bridge. At that moment, the Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and East groups' troops will lose the necessary and material-technical support. The Crimean Bridge solves many problems in this regard.

Bad weather has hit the front right now, essentially favoring the Russians. But only because their command neglects human lives. Therefore, they will continue to advance, and we will mainly be in defense. The exception may be the left bank of the Kherson region.