UK intel assesses how long it could take Russia to occupy Donbas and southern Ukraine
Illustrative photo: UK intelligence estimates how long Russia would need to occupy Donbas (GettyImages)
Russia would need four years to fully seize control of four Ukrainian regions, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.
"Based on the rate of Russia's incremental battlefield advances so far in 2025, it would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts' territory," reads the statement.
According to UK intelligence, if the war continues for another four years at the current rate of losses, Russia would incur around 1.93 million additional killed and wounded. This would be on top of the roughly 1.06 million recorded since 2022, including about 250,000 killed or missing.
War in Ukraine
Earlier, it was reported that Vladimir Putin had proposed to US President Donald Trump to halt hostilities in Ukraine. However, the Kremlin set a condition: Ukrainian forces must surrender all Donbas territories currently under their control.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that Ukraine’s army would not withdraw from Donbas, as concessions to Russia without security guarantees would only lead to the rapid outbreak of a third war.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War explained why the remaining parts of Donbas should not be handed over to Putin.
