War is unlikely to end in 2026: Ukrainian MP Kostenko speaks about peace talks and frontline

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Key points

• Peace at any cost is a trap. Russia demands the surrender of territories, imposes its language and church. Any pause without security guarantees will be used to prepare a new strike.
• The real pace of occupation. Throughout 2025, the Russians seized territory equal to only 16% of the Donetsk region. At this rate, it would take them more than two years to capture just one region.
• Putin's goal has not changed. The enemy seeks to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and destroy Ukrainian identity.
• The "black swan" factor. An end to the war in 2026 is possible only in the event of unexpected developments inside Russia or critical losses for the enemy.

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'Peace at any cost is a trap'

— You said recently that the current negotiations are disadvantageous for Ukraine. Why?

— When you go into negotiations, you need strong positions. They need to be formed in advance. And today we are sitting down at the table in a situation where Russia is dictating the terms.

According to him, Moscow is demanding not only a halt along the front line, but in fact the surrender of Ukrainian territories, which is unacceptable. Russia has managed to convince some partners of its own "successes" on the battlefield, although the real situation, the MP stresses, is different.

— I do not believe they have major successes. But they believe so. And, unfortunately, have convinced our partners of this.

Kostenko names strikes on energy infrastructure during frosts as a separate factor of pressure. This way, Russia is trying to push Ukraine into concessions, he says.

— I communicate with many people, and no one sees any real achievements in the negotiations. Everything is as it was: Russia demands territories, imposes language, and the church. And we are forced simply to be present in this process.

Kostenko emphasizes that his position should not be perceived as a call for an endless war.

— I definitely want peace. I have fought enough in my life and understand that peace is better than any war. But not at the expense of Ukrainians who live in our territories.

Any pause without ironclad security guarantees will be used by the enemy to regroup and launch a new, even more powerful strike after some time, according to the MP.

Photo: Roman Kostenko (facebook.com)

'Russia cannot seize even the Donetsk region'

— Russia's main demand is to hand over Donbas without a fight. Do they not have the forces to seize it?

— They have deadlines, which are clearly defined, but have already been postponed more than once. The reason is simple — the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

Throughout 2025, the Russians seized territories that in total equal about 16% of the Donetsk region, while losing hundreds of thousands of servicemen. According to experts, at such a pace, Russia would need more than two years to seize the Donetsk region alone.

— And that is provided they have enough resources. And the region is seriously fortified.

In parallel, the Kremlin, according to the MP, also has plans regarding southern Ukraine.

— They need to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. The sooner they do this, the better for them. This is why they are already promising their military "apartments in Odesa or Mykolaiv."

— Russians have recently started being cut off from Starlink. Russian war correspondents are already saying this is negatively affecting the front. Does disabling Starlink help Ukraine?

— Yes, they (Russians - ed.) have major problems, including with communications, and in war, communications are one of the key factors — having reliable communication is crucial. And right now they are experiencing problems with that.

Kostenko notes that the Russians used Starlink for precise drone targeting. Limiting the operation of these terminals has already created serious problems with coordination for Russian troops on the front line.

'It is impossible to reach an agreement with Russia'

Kostenko reacts harshly to the idea of peace through surrendering territories, which, according to opinion polls, is supported by some Ukrainians.

— I do not understand who these people are. One hundred percent — they are not people from Donbas. They think that if Donbas is given up, it will not affect them. But Russia never stops.

He recalls that after the occupation of Crimea, Russia actually forced Ukrainians out, and is now repeating the same logic in other territories.

— Russia does not consider us brothers. They believe that we are excess people on “their” lands. And one needs to honestly realize it.

'A chance to end the war only with a black swan'

— Is it possible to end the war in 2026?

— From the point of view of Russia's current intentions, it is unlikely. If we do not give up territories, the war will continue. If we do give them up, it will provide a short pause, after which everything will start again.

The only realistic scenario, according to him, is a "black swan" - internal upheavals in Russia or critical losses after which the enemy will not be able to recover.

— It is impossible to reach an agreement with Russia. It can only be stopped. Everything else is a path to a new escalation and an even greater war.