Will Putin pause attacks on Ukraine until talks with Trump? Expert opinion
Photo: Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump (Getty Images)
Russia has resources for further missile strikes on Ukraine, making it risky to assume that Russian leader Vladimir Putin will pause, hoping for certain agreements with US President Donald Trump, as military expert and former spokesperson for Ukraine's General Staff, Vladyslav Seleznov, told RBC-Ukraine.
Less than a week before and after the US presidential inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20, Russian forces refrained from large-scale missile attacks on Ukrainian territory.
Both Trump and Putin have signaled the possibility of talks soon. However, whether the Kremlin leader will pause massive strikes on Ukraine ahead of this dialogue remains unknown, as Putin's actions are difficult to predict, Seleznov said.
"Obviously, in his plans and delusions, he (Putin - ed.) dreams of taking full control of the entire territory of Ukraine. To achieve this mission, he is willing to use all levers of influence: informational, military, or forceful," said Seleznov.
It is evident that Putin has the resources to continue attacking Ukraine this year, using drones, missiles, artillery.
"I wouldn’t risk assuming that Putin will take any operational pause, hoping for certain agreements with Trump. I think the key factor influencing Putin's decision to continue aggression against Ukraine is resources," Seleznov emphasized.
He pointed out that the enemy indeed has resources. So, "it's futile to entertain illusions that Putin will suddenly become a 'good neighbor' and abandon his aggression." His plan, for which he launched the "special military operation," remains unfulfilled.
"Putin wants it all. As long as he has resources to make even small progress toward his goal, he will act as he has been, including massive missile and drone attacks and exerting pressure on all possible fronts and positions," Seleznov believes.
12 days have passed since Russia's last missile attack on Ukraine involving strategic aviation. According to the expert, enough time has passed for the enemy to prepare for the next strike.
"Under Soviet standards, strategic aviation aircraft were required to be ready for the next combat sortie within a day - less than 24 hours. Currently, the Russians are failing to meet these standards. But they only need a few days to accumulate resources," Seleznov explained.
He says that the enemy has the capabilities and resources to carry out further missile strikes. Drone attacks on Ukraine occur nightly, which is why the expert advises against "indulging in illusions that the situation will drastically change tomorrow."
Russia’s massive missile strikes on Ukraine
Traditionally, Russia concentrates its missile strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. For instance, the Russian military last used strategic aviation aircraft for a massive strike on Ukraine on January 15, 2025.
They launched over 70 drones overnight and more than 40 missiles, including ballistic ones, in the morning. It primarily targeted western regions, with some areas reporting hits on critical infrastructure, including gas facilities. Before that, Russian forces launched a missile attack on Ukraine early on December 31, targeting infrastructure in Shostka, Sumy region.
On Christmas Eve and early Christmas morning on December 25, Russian soldiers damaged severely thermal power plant equipment during a large-scale attack, attempting to deprive Ukrainians of electricity, gas, heat, and water.
