Why Russia seeks to capture Pokrovsk at any cost - Expert's analysis
Photo: Ukrainian Armed Forces repel constant attacks by Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction (Getty Images)
Russian troops have accelerated their offensive in Pokrovsk following the Ukrainian Armed Forces' incursion into the Kursk region. The enemy has approached within 10-15 kilometers of the city's outskirts, with ongoing fighting in the area. Local authorities are urging civilians to evacuate immediately.
Evacuation from Pokrovsk has recently been ramped up (since August 20, evacuation has been mandatory for families with children). Approximately 59,000 residents remain in the city.
Given the timeline of the Russian troops' advance, Pokrovsk residents have about one to two weeks to evacuate, according to Serhii Dobriak, the head of the Pokrovsk City Military Administration. He advised civilians to leave while it was still possible to do so calmly.
"We have urged and continue to urge our residents to evacuate in an orderly manner — without congestion at the railway stations or on the roads, as happened in 2022," Dobriak explained.
According to National Guard spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk, the greatest threat to locals at present is from airstrikes, guided bombs, and multiple rocket launcher systems, though artillery shelling is becoming a risk as the front line approaches.
The escalation in the Pokrovsk direction coincides with the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region. Although the enemy was forced to redeploy forces from occupied Ukrainian territories due to the breach of its border, this has not affected the Pokrovsk area. Moreover, The Economist reports that Russia is intensifying pressure on Ukrainian positions in this region.
Russian opposition publication Agency has calculated that over the past week, Russian forces have allegedly gained the most territory in Ukraine since late May, with a significant portion in the Pokrovsk area.
Notably, the analytical project DeepState reported on the occupation of settlements including Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, Orlivka, Lysychne, Ivanivka, and Svyrydonivka. However, there are currently no official confirmations from the General Staff.
Photo: Russian army advances in the Pokrovsk direction (deepstatemap.live)
Why the Russians want to capture Pokrovsk
Military expert and former spokesperson for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Vladyslav Seleznov commented to RBC-Ukraine on the likely reasons behind Russia's determination to capture this city.
“It is not entirely clear why the Russian General Staff is so persistently focusing on this area. They may have specific considerations. In my opinion, the issue is that Pokrovsk is the largest city in the western Donetsk region,” Seleznov stated.
He reminded that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has harbored ambitions since the beginning of the so-called special military operation to occupy the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. While Russia has largely controlled Luhansk, the situation in Donetsk remains challenging. Seleznov explained why.
“The vast urban Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is, even in distant dreams, inaccessible to Putin's army. However, Pokrovsk, as a target in the western part of Donetsk region, is a more realistic option for occupation according to the Russian General Staff,” Seleznov said.
Nonetheless, the expert has doubts about whether the enemy has sufficient resources to capture the city.
“The Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov recently stated that the Russian offensive would exhaust itself in one to two months. Two weeks have already passed. But will Putin's army manage to overcome Ukrainian resistance within a month?” Seleznov questioned.
He explained that Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk are urban areas with many industrial zones. Consequently, some forces and resources were created and now defend engineering fortifications. Therefore, the enemy might simply lack the resources to accomplish this mission, but they will attempt it.
Russia may threaten Dnipropetrovsk region
The expert emphasized that since the enemy cannot occupy the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, the largest part of the Donetsk region under Ukrainian control, they will try to achieve this goal at least in the Pokrovsk area, potentially reaching the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
“This could create a precedent. Russia might claim it has fulfilled its obligation to occupy at least part of the Donetsk region and thus begin threatening Dnipropetrovsk. What would prevent them from advancing toward Novopidhorodne, Mezhova, or Pavlohrad?” Seleznov suggested.
In this scenario, by controlling a few dozen square kilometers of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Moscow might declare it as part of the so-called Russian territory, similar to what happened with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, the expert explained.
Photo: Russians may threaten Dnipro region if Pokrovsk is captured (deepstatemap.live)
“Therefore, in my opinion, the order for Russians to capture territory at any cost is influenced by these factors. However, what is precisely in the minds of General Gerasimov or Putin is not known. This is just speculation,” Seleznov concluded.
Recently, RBC-Ukraine visited the positions of one of the brigades defending the Pokrovsk direction. For more details on what soldiers say about the fiercest battles in the hottest area of Donetsk, read the full report.
Sources: statements from Serhii Dobriak, and Ruslan Muzychuk, publications from DeepState, The Economist, Agency, and others.
