Expert assesses whether Russia's army can strengthen with prisoners and debtors
Photo: an expert assessed whether the Russian army can be qualitatively strengthened by prisoners and debtors (facebook.com/mod.mil.rus)
Prisoners are not typically seen as regular forces capable of conducting general military operations. They serve as frontline soldiers, tasked with drawing fire, carrying ammunition, and providing cover for trained Russian troops, said Ivan Tymochko, head of the Reserve Council of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
"In 2023-2024, they (Russia - ed.) were mobilizing around 35,000-40,000 people per month under contract. If we multiply by 12 months, that's 400,000-500,000. Even adding these numbers, the total remains similar," said Tymochko.
However, he noted that Russian losses have significantly increased in 2024. The best they can do now is to “minimize losses.”
"If, hypothetically, they lose up to 40,000 per month and can mobilize 35,000, the figure of 5,000 seems imperceptible to us along the front line. But this is what impacts the buildup of potential," the expert said.
According to him, if the Russian forces attempt to reach a peak month level in 2024, they would need to mobilize 45,000-50,000 per month to bring the difference to zero and increase by at least 5,000-6,000.
"They had expectations in the Kursk region that by the time the North Korean soldiers were trained, they would also use them there, or build up powerful resource of North Korean soldiers. The turning point that the Russians hoped for did not happen," Tymochko said.
He added that, with the current maximum strength of Russian troops, resources, and capabilities, they have tactical successes but suffer strategic losses.
To achieve operational success, Russia needs to boost both its human and military potential, as its mobilization capacity is also strained.
"And if we talk about prisoners, I recall that last year the Russian penitentiary system reduced its production by 10 to 30%, particularly in timber and other sectors. Since the unpaid labor of prisoners mostly supported defense industry needs, a sharp decline in the number of prisoners in prisons leads to a decrease in some government orders," the expert added.
On the other hand, as Tymochko pointed out, prisoners are not currently considered as regular forces that can conduct full military operations.
"They are frontline soldiers whose job is to draw fire, carry ammunition on their backs, and provide cover for the trained Russian forces," emphasized the military expert.
Russia plans to mobilize a “special contingent” in 2025
Russia plans to mobilize a "special contingent" in 2025, according to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence. The goal is to replenish losses by mobilizing at least 126,000 soldiers from a "special contingent," which includes prisoners, individuals under investigation, those with debts under credits, and others facing various issues.
On average, Russia plans to mobilize 10,000 people from this "special contingent" each month to cover the losses.
Overall, Russia intends to mobilize at least 280,000 soldiers in 2025 to replace losses in its military units fighting against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
