Trump's Ukraine policy backfires as Republicans face a midterm election battle

Key points

• Domestic pressure: Trump links high fuel prices in the US to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia, concealing his own failure with Iran.
• Personal factor: The attack on Zelenskyy and statements about a "new president" in Kyiv are partly related to Trump's personal attitude toward the Ukrainian leader.
• Electoral collapse: Polls indicate that anti-Ukraine rhetoric is ineffective, as Trump's real actions to lower prices matter more to Americans.
• Division among conservatives: Some Republicans condemned the diesel deal with Putin, calling it a betrayal of US allies, creating potential problems for Trump in the future.
• A difficult period: Kyiv continues to face the risks of intelligence-sharing restrictions and limits on Patriot missile supplies through the PURL program.

Just weeks before the congressional elections, Ukraine is once again at the center of American domestic politics. Donald Trump created problems for himself, but instead of addressing them, he is shifting the blame onto Kyiv.

Trump is desperately looking for quick solutions amid record-high fuel prices, which, in turn, are driving up the prices of all other goods.

Donald Trump (Photo: Getty Images)

First, the US president unilaterally issued a temporary license to purchase 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel, effectively undermining the international oil embargo imposed by Western countries. Later, he began talking about achieving an "energy truce" between Ukraine and Russia.

But it exists only in Trump's mind and on his social media platform, as President Zelenskyy explicitly stated. The Kremlin continues to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure and other civilian infrastructure facilities virtually every day.

"It was clear that Putin does not read Truth Social and that his Shahed drones follow different instructions. But these posts are actually about things that affect the lives of millions of people, and that makes them very, very important," Zelenskyy noted.

Trump also declared that it was time "for Ukraine to have a new president." This statement mirrors Kremlin propaganda narratives aimed at undermining the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government under martial law.

On top of that, overnight on October 14, SpaceX, owned by Trump ally billionaire Elon Musk, restricted the use of Starlink systems in Ukraine for military purposes. The situation regarding sharing intelligence with Ukraine also remains unclear.

There has not been this level of tension and toxicity since the infamous clash between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office last year, when the American leader harshly criticized Kyiv for its lack of gratitude and "lack of cards."

A personal story

Clearly, the problem with diesel prices in the US arose because of the war in Iran and is related to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries to a much lesser extent.

Trump's criticism ahead of the elections is directed not so much against Ukraine as a country as it is personalized around the name of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"Blaming Ukraine or Zelenskyy is a classic manipulation of public opinion that serves the interests and goals of Trump's election campaign ahead of the November elections," Arkady Mil-Man, former ambassador to Russia and head of the Russia Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, Trump has a complicated personal relationship with Zelenskyy and continues to feel aggrieved because of his first impeachment. In 2019, Democrats in Congress launched impeachment proceedings against him over pressure on Kyiv to investigate Biden's son. The Ukrainian president remains a living reminder of that unpleasant episode for Trump.

In a difficult electoral situation, it is easier for Trump to find a "scapegoat" in Ukraine than to admit his own mistakes.

"Trump is a person who does not forget this kind of thing, which creates a very complicated situation. And it becomes personalized," Mil-Man added.

Nevertheless, Trump's efforts appear to be producing the opposite result from what he wants. Instead of improving his party's standing, they are only making it worse.

The impact of the statements on the congressional elections

Even before the elections, Trump and the Republicans had developed a number of mechanisms that gave them a fairly good chance of achieving a decent result. But this was not thanks to a well-run campaign or because Americans genuinely liked the new direction of his policies.

"Since the very beginning of his second term, Trump's team has systematically used a range of different tools to ensure that these elections turn out well for them, regardless of public trends," Artur Koldomasov, a US politics specialist and member of the American Political Science Association, told RBC-Ukraine.

These measures include redrawing electoral districts and changing campaign finance rules. They also include restricting the operations of regional public broadcasters, changing voting machines, attempts to gain full access to American voters' data, and restrictions on mail-in voting.

These are all practical measures that directly affect the conduct of this year's midterm elections and will influence their outcome.

"Courts in the US are literally bursting at the seams with the sheer number of attempts by Trump's team to change the rules of the game. That is why we need to pay attention to all these processes, which are being layered onto a far-from-perfect electoral system that does not fully reflect the principle of direct popular vote," Koldomasov added.

According to him, Democrats have a good chance of winning, but the fight will not be as easy for them as it might seem at first glance, precisely because of all these changes.

According to the polling aggregator RacetotheWH, Democrats could win 234 seats compared with 201 for Republicans, with an 88.6% probability of gaining a majority in the House of Representatives.

The situation for Republicans in the Senate is also difficult. While they previously had a decent chance of retaining their majority, that is now becoming increasingly unlikely. Republicans risk losing Senate seats even in traditional electoral strongholds such as Iowa, Kansas, and Texas.

"Meanwhile, US foreign policy has been a tool of Donald Trump's domestic politics since 2025 and is more of a backdrop that distracts Americans from domestic problems, as unfortunate as that may sound to us," the expert emphasized.

Photo: Preliminary distribution of seats in the House of Representatives (RBC-Ukraine infographic)

According to a Politico/PFGlobal poll, only 29% of Americans say that a $1 drop in gasoline prices would make them more likely to vote for Republicans. A similar share, 28%, say that ending the war with Iran would have the same effect. One in three Americans says that ending the war in Iran would have no real impact on their voting choice.

Still, Trump has done too much over the past two years for all his miscalculations to simply be forgotten because of one symbolic gesture right before the elections.

Moreover, early mail-in voting has already begun in nearly half of the states. Accordingly, Trump can no longer change the positions of these voters.

Judging by the latest statements from White House officials and the course of the election campaign, Trump's team has found itself in a serious communications crisis.

On the one hand, the administration is trying to shift responsibility for rising gas station prices onto external factors — Ukrainian strikes on Russia. On the other hand, admitting that the real reason for the surge in fuel prices is the escalation surrounding Iran would mean suffering an even greater reputational blow ahead of the elections.

Under these circumstances, using the "Ukraine case" appears to be the lesser evil for Trump, even though it is completely ineffective when it comes to attracting support from moderate voters.

Dissatisfaction from different sides

Trump's deal with Russia is simply a gift to Democrats. They have, of course, launched a large-scale campaign criticizing the president through every available communication channel.

But not all Republicans are willing to tolerate closer ties with Putin, either. Even some members of the MAGA movement have criticized Trump. Among them is prominent millionaire blogger Laura Loomer, who recently visited Ukraine.

Twelve senators from both parties directly condemned Trump's deal with Putin in an open letter, calling it "a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our allies." The letter states that easing sanctions simply gives Putin more fuel to finance his war machine and allows Russia to continue its brutal attacks on Ukrainian civilians.

But the strongest signal from the moderate wing of the Republican Party came from Mike Pence, the former vice president who served alongside Trump during his first term. He called on the US president to immediately cancel the deal with the Kremlin.

According to Pence, America must not "throw a lifeline to Putin's war machine." Instead, it should impose the toughest possible sanctions on any countries purchasing Russian energy resources and provide Ukraine with everything it needs to win. Pence ended his post with "Glory to Ukraine!"

Democrats rally in Michigan (Photo: Getty Images)

Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick announced a bipartisan bill aimed at prohibiting any purchases of Russian oil.

Even the speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican and Trump supporter Mike Johnson, believes that fuel prices are rising not because of Zelenskyy but because of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Since World War II, whether under Democratic or Republican administrations, all presidents understood perfectly well that there was a serious problem with the Soviet Union and Russia. There was a certain system of values on which they relied. And that system of values has, essentially, now been destroyed by Trump," Arkady Mil-Man noted.

These moves should not be overestimated at this point. The freedom of expression enjoyed by individual congressmen or senators is directly proportional to how secure their positions are in their electoral districts. Moreover, Congress may not return to work until after the elections.

According to Koldomasov, Congress is not an independent institution under the current dynamics of American politics, and a number of precedents, including legislative ones, demonstrate this.

"In its current state, the limited attempts to resist Donald Trump and his policies are being crushed by the harsh political reality that congressmen themselves have brought about, because their main priority is to hold on to their seats," the expert noted.

In practice, all this means that Trump and his inner circle face no restraints when it comes to anti-Ukraine actions, at least temporarily. In the longer term, however, this creates new risks for the occupant of the White House.

At the time, both impeachment attempts against Trump failed because Democrats did not have enough votes to push the initiatives through on their own. Although the chances of a third impeachment remain low even after the current elections, the likelihood of Democrats and Republicans cooperating on other, more tactical issues will certainly increase. Congress has long had concerns about a number of members of Trump's team, from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to FBI Director Kash Patel.

A difficult period

Less than three weeks remain until the November 3 elections. Trump still has ways to make life more difficult for Ukraine. First and foremost, this concerns a complete and prolonged suspension of intelligence sharing.

In March last year, following the infamous White House argument, the US had already done this. However, European partners can now partially make up for the shortage.

Another risk is associated with American weapons for Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, European officials have also received calls from the US threatening to halt the PURL program, which allows Europeans to purchase American weapons and then transfer them to Ukraine.

Through the program, Ukraine receives a range of weapons, but the key items are interceptors for Patriot PAC-3 systems. Although the numbers are relatively small — according to some reports, several dozen per month — even this could be critical for Ukraine amid Russia's ongoing ballistic missile attacks.

"We see that Trump is becoming, to some extent, an instrument of Putin's policy. But since this contradicts US strategic interests, I think that things will eventually change. The only question is when: in a few weeks, a few months, or whether this could drag on," political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko told RBC-Ukraine.

This will probably not be the end of it. The US president has long demonstrated that he is unpredictable, especially if he blames Ukraine for an electoral defeat.

Quick Q&A

Why does Donald Trump blame Ukraine for rising gasoline prices in the US? The Trump administration is trying to shift responsibility for inflation onto external factors, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. In reality, the key reason for the surge in gas station prices is the tensions surrounding Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

How does the US deal with Russia over diesel affect sanctions against the Kremlin? Issuing a temporary license to purchase 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel undermines the international oil embargo and provides Moscow with additional funds to finance the war. In response, 12 US senators and Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick have initiated bipartisan efforts to ban such purchases entirely.

Could Republicans lose their majority in Congress? Yes. According to the RacetotheWH polling aggregator, Democrats have an 88.6% chance of gaining a majority in the House of Representatives, while Republicans risk losing ground in the Senate even in traditionally Republican states such as Iowa, Kansas, and Texas. Attempts to manipulate public opinion by blaming Ukraine for gas station prices are alienating moderate and independent voters.

What risks does Ukraine's military assistance face ahead of the US elections? In addition to restrictions on Starlink operations, there remains a risk that the US will block intelligence sharing and follow through on threats to terminate the PURL program. As a result, regular supplies of Patriot PAC-3 interceptors used to repel Russian ballistic missile attacks could be jeopardized.