Trump forever? Reasons behind resurfacing discussions on third term for US president
Donald Trump (photo: Getty Images)
In the US, there is growing speculation that Donald Trump may run for president for a third time after the current term ends in 2029. Although this is directly prohibited by the American constitution.
Content
- Who and what is saying about Trump's new term
- Constitutional restrictions and what to do about them
- Why the talk about a third term has emerged now
Who and what is saying about Trump's new term
Donald Trump is currently in his second presidential term out of two possible terms. He first became the occupant of the White House in 2017, lost to Joe Biden four years later, and returned to office only this year. Trump has repeatedly hinted at the possibility of extending his political career after his second term ends in January 2029. However, he has stated that such talks are not serious. For example, on January 25, Trump made this statement with a smile, calling it headlines for fake news.
But in recent months, such statements have become more frequent. The most recent statement from Trump on this matter dates back to March 31. Journalists aboard Air Force One asked him if he was thinking about a third presidential term.
The US president explained that he didn't want to talk about his third term at that moment, noting that they still had plenty of time, almost four years. However, he mentioned that many people were saying he should run and that they liked what his team was doing, emphasizing that the important thing was that they liked it.
Similar statements are regularly made by several members of Trump's team. Moreover, according to many American media outlets, discussions are taking place within Trump's team about various scenarios for how to ensure his power is maintained after the end of his second term.
Constitutional restrictions and what to do about them
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution clearly states that no person can be elected president more than twice. Therefore, removing the ban on a third term could be done by repealing or amending the 22nd Amendment through the introduction of a new amendment to the Constitution.
Previously, the two-term limit was informal. However, this rule was officially established only in 1951, after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected four times. Despite being popular with the public and leading the country during World War II, American lawmakers decided that it would be better to avoid such cases in the future.
To repeal the restriction, a new amendment - replacing the 22nd Amendment - would need to be proposed either by two-thirds of the votes in the US House of Representatives and Senate or through a special constitutional convention convened by two-thirds of the states (though this option has never been used).
After this, the amendment must be ratified by three-fourths of the states (38 out of 50), either through their legislative bodies or through special conventions in the states. However, the political divide in the US and the significant number of Trump opponents in Congress make such a scenario practically impossible.
Several American legal experts also suggest the possibility of a clever legal maneuver. Trump could run for vice president in 2028 and then become president in the event of the current president's resignation or death. The idea is that, for the next election, the presidential candidate might be, for example, the current vice president JD Vance, and after winning, he would voluntarily resign and transfer the mandate to Trump. However, this scenario is blocked by the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution: "But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States."
In the extreme case, if Trump tried to simply ignore the 22nd Amendment and run, it would lead to a legal challenge. The US Supreme Court, which has the final word on constitutional matters, could rule this unconstitutional. On the other hand, the Supreme Court currently has a majority of conservative judges appointed by Trump during his first term.
One popular theory in American media suggests that Trump may not run himself but could establish control over the White House through a loyal successor, effectively bypassing the 22nd Amendment informally. This strategy is compared to the actions of Vladimir Putin in Russia between 2008 and 2012, when the Russian dictator became prime minister for four years and appointed Dmitry Medvedev as president while maintaining actual power in his hands.
There are also openly fantastical versions in conservative American media regarding Trump staying in power after the completion of his second term: canceling elections, declaring a state of emergency, mobilizing Republican states to pressure the federal system, or reinterpreting the term election to bypass the same 22nd Amendment.
Why the talk about a third term has emerged now
In any case, Trump is currently only at the beginning of his second term. Over time, his approval rating may drop, and running for a third presidency may not even make sense. Moreover, Trump's political opponents from the Democratic Party have stated that if the two-term limit is removed, they plan to nominate a strong candidate. In this context, former President Barack Obama is often mentioned. Like Trump, he was elected president twice and still retains relative popularity.
There are several theories about why the discourse around a third term has been activated. Trump’s team may be experiencing a dizziness from success. In this case, the current media campaign serves as a test of public opinion.
There is also a more "down-to-earth" version – distraction. Throughout March, the White House was rocked by the massive Signalgate scandal. Additionally, there is still little to be proud of regarding the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Supporters of this version connect the statements about Trump’s third term with an attempt to distract Americans.
Whatever the reasons, for now, such discussions play a destructive role, intensifying the divide in the US. Trump’s figure is highly controversial, and there are plenty of irreconcilable opponents of him in the US, just as there are passionate supporters. With each new statement on the topic of a third term, the tension between them grows stronger.
This article draws on statements from American politicians and editions from The New York Times, The Hill, Breitbart News, Axios, Reuters, and the New York Post.
