Surprise breakthrough: How incursion into Russia's Kursk region opened new maneuver for Ukraine

Contents

• New breakthrough in Kursk region
• What breakthrough at Veseloe means and why it was possible
• Possible targets
• Who takes initiative and what happens next

New breakthrough in Kursk region

Last week, the Khorne Group unit of the 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a breakthrough.

“We have entered a new place, for kilometers, into the Russian territory... a group of Russian urgent soldiers of more than one thousand people is under the threat of encirclement,” the statement says.

The published footage shows how the equipment breaks through the barriers of the so-called dragon's teeth, moves through the fields, along the forest plantations, and enters one of the settlements.

The offensive is reportedly being carried out by two assault battalions. The Khorne Group calls the breakthrough itself a Ukrainian version of Operation Bagration (the liberation of Belarus from German occupation in the summer of 1944).

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the troops are moving toward the village of Vesele, southwest of the district center of Glushkovo. Ukrainian forces are attacking near the settlements of Novyi Put, Veseloe, and Medvezhe.

Meanwhile, Z-publics managed to report first that Veseloe had fallen under the control of the Ukrainian army, and then that it had allegedly been recaptured. There is no visual evidence of this, and the offensive is likely to continue. On the map of the Ukrainian project DeepState, this territory is marked as a gray zone of 40 square kilometers.

The new gray zone in the direction of Veseloe village (screenshot from deepstatemap.live)

What initially seemed to be a short and shallow breakthrough has turned into something much more dangerous for Russian control in the Kursk region, Forbes writes. According to the agency, Ukrainian tanks entered Veseloe no later than Saturday. And on Sunday, a fighter bomber dropped a JDAM cruise missile on a building in the center of the village.

Regarding this episode, a video of the joint work of the aviation on the control observation post appeared on the network.

As a result, the building was destroyed with the Russian infantry in it. Also, battalions of the 225th and 33rd brigades secured the entrance to Russia's rear, and the fighting continued DeepState notes. “Answer for the Poltava School of Communications,” reads the caption to the video on the Khorne Group channel, referring to the September 3 Russian missile strike that killed nearly 60 people.

According to reports, the Russian garrison around Veseloe is largely composed of conscripts. In contrast, the Ukrainian forces consist of hardened fighters who are advancing with the support of tanks, drones, and aircraft, Forbes emphasizes.

There is no official confirmation from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Reports briefly indicate that the overall operation in the Kursk region continues.

What breakthrough at Veseloe means and why it was possible

Veseloe is located in the rear of the Russian group, which has been advancing towards Snagost and the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kursk region since last week. Veseloe is about 7.5 kilometers away from Glushkovo, where the Russian army's pontoon crossings are located.

Russian troops are now launching a counteroffensive. Since September 10, they have regained control of a dozen settlements. According to Ukrainian analysts, the offensive is being launched from four directions.

Read more in the article "Russia launches counteroffensive? What's happening in Kursk region”.

Russia did not achieve much success this week. Moreover, the Glushkovo district continues to be in the so-called firebomb where the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain fire control on three sides, and the Russians are hampered by the Seim River on the fourth. In recent weeks, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have destroyed all the bridges there and have been consistently hitting the pontoons.

Scheme of the Russian counteroffensive from Koreneve and Glushkovo, with the territory under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces marked in blue (screenshot from deepstatemap.live)

According to Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder of DeepState, active fighting continues, including in new areas. Russia is trying to storm the western flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces-controlled bridgehead, there were some unfavorable moments, but the situation is dynamic, and positions are changing hands.

“After the last update, everyone could see the gray zone and the encirclement, and it is true, the Russians are surrounded... The Ukrainian military is fighting them, the picture is very interesting, but it is too early to draw any conclusions. Everything is changing so fast that you just have to process the information,” he said in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine.

The Russian counteroffensive from Korenevo may be part of the Ukrainian plan. At least this was hinted at by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to him, everything is going according to our plan, the Ukrainian plan.

According to Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, one of the reasons for the new direction was Russia's counteroffensive.

“Still, the conditional siege of the Russian group, starting from Tetkino and further west to Korenevo, played a role. The Russians tried to send reinforcements and threw pontoons, but the situation was difficult. That's why they decided to deblock in an attempt to push the Ukrainian army back. Ukrainian troops withdrew from some positions, but instead counterattacked where the Russians did not expect,” he told the agency.

The counterattack on Veseloe became possible not only because Russia was attacking from the direction of Korenevo. Before that, the Ukrainian Defense Forces had been inflicting fire damage and weakening Russians in this area daily.

“As soon as it seemed that he was able to advance, Ukrainian troops attacked from an unexpected direction and began to squeeze the Russians further,” Musiienko added.

Possible targets

The Ukrainian Defense Forces are entering Russia's rear and cutting into the flank. One of the goals may be an attempt to cut the Russian group and create problems from the south. And not just to exert firepower, but to squeeze them out of the occupied territory, Musiienko said.

In his opinion, because the Seim River is under the fire control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian army will have problems with logistics and the transfer of reinforcements. This should create additional threats, which should eventually lead to Ukraine taking control of the entire bridgehead where the Russian forces were lured.

“I think this is the maximum task. A minimum task could be to pull Russian forces away from the Korenevo area in such a way as to ease the pressure on our group. And also to prevent a rapid breakthrough or to concentrate resources for a larger breakthrough from that direction,” the expert noted.

Ukrainian forces are likely to try to take control of new territories in the Kursk region or draw back some of the enemy troops (photo by Getty Images)

The offensive on Veseloe shows that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have the resources to create at least new points of tension. This tactic may be intended to force the Russians to withdraw even more troops from Ukraine.

“This is also one of the goals, of course. We need to understand that when the Russians conduct offensive actions, they suffer more losses. And without a breakthrough for Veseloe, holding and restraining the Russians will force them to redeploy units from other areas. But even in the version where the new operation may have other tasks, it is to Ukraine's advantage, because in any case, it will distract Russian forces,” Musiienko emphasized.

As for whether the tactics of sudden breakthroughs will eventually slow down the pace of the Russian offensive in the Donetsk region, it is too early to assess, the source said.

Who takes initiative and what happens next

Due to the dynamics in the Kursk region, it is difficult to understand who exactly has the initiative. According to Roman Pohorilyi, the Russians are not sitting still, they have deployed in different areas, are advancing in the Snagost area, and have regained control of several settlements. But in general, the analyst characterizes the situation as parity.

“The Ukrainian Defense Forces are also working, without any details. Operational silence has proven effective. There are places where the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repel attacks... That's how we can describe the entire segment in the blue zone (controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces - ed.), which everyone can see, and in the gray zone. There is indeed parity here, there are successful areas for us, and, unfortunately, successful areas for the Russians,” he said.

Speaking about the Kursk region, Russian helicopters cause a lot of problems. There are not enough countermeasures, and the use of FPV drones against them is gaining momentum, but it is not yet widespread and is not a panacea. Another problem is artillery, which levels everything to the ground. The lack of shells for counter-battery combat is constantly making adjustments, Pohorilyi noted.

Oleksandr Musiienko is inclined to believe that the initiative is still with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, the Russian troops will try to intercept it and will focus on this soon.

“I would not rule out that at some stage Russians will even partially succeed. But the main thing is that Ukrainian troops have the initiative today, and the offensive near Veseloe proves it. We reacted “reactively” and did not just go on the defensive,” the expert emphasized.

The fact is that the command has found a way out of the situation and is not going to leave the Kursk region quickly. Likely, the breakthrough to Veseloe is not the only trick up the Ukrainian General Staff's sleeve. The problem is that these trump cards need to be matched with the necessary support from Western partners in the form of weapons and other resources. Only time will tell how long the Ukrainian Defense Forces will be able to impose their will on this section of the front.

Sources: Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Forbes, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder of the DeepState analytical project, and Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.