Russia preparing new offensive on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia: Frontline overview and Putin's plans

The Ukrainian military is unable to stop the Russian offensive at the front. The dynamics of Russia's advance since this fall are comparable only to the first half of 2022. Moscow's goal is to achieve maximum territorial gains and complicate Ukraine's situation as much as possible before President Trump's inauguration.

Russia is exerting pressure on seven fronts and has started fighting for three Ukrainian defense hubs in the East: Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.

At the same time, Russia intends to intensify its activities in 2 more areas in the South, where relative stability has been maintained for more than a year.

Southern Donbas

The epicenter of fighting in the East is the area around Kurakhove. Russian occupiers are attacking this important logistics hub in the south of the Donetsk region from the north (Tsentr troops grouping), east (Yug troops grouping), and south (Vostok troops grouping). In the north, Russian troops are advancing to the western part of the Kurakhove reservoir from Berestky, Voznesenka, and Sontsivka. From the east - from Maksymilianivka - directly to the central streets of the city.

From the south, Russia is moving from Vuhledar in several groups towards the Sukhi Yaly River. The Ukrainian positions in this area are complicated by the fact that Russians simultaneously broke through from Maksymilianivka to the village of Dalne, and thus reached the rear of the Ukrainian group defending along the Sukhi Yaly River in Uspenivka. As a result, those Ukrainian units holding positions to the east of this village may be at risk of being surrounded if they do not move out in time.

So far, nothing gives us hope that we will be able to hold the Kurakhove foothold. At the same time, the same Vostok group that is moving from the south to Kurakhove has launched an offensive in the Vremivka direction, the area from which the Ukrainian military launched their offensive last year. Russia's immediate goal here is to capture Velyka Novosilka by overrunning it, as well as to regain control of the few settlements that Ukraine recaptured in 2023.

The Russians are putting pressure on Velyka Novosilka from several directions. From the east, from Rozdolne, Shakhtarsk, and Zolota Nyva, where they have already managed to get a foothold on the outskirts of the town. The Russians covered the ten kilometers separating Shakhtarsk from Velyka Novosilka in less than a month. From the south - from Staromayorske and Urozhaine. From the southwest - from Rivnopil.

Southern Donetsk region (map: DeepState)

It was Russia's advance in this area that gave rise to estimates that the Russians might allegedly launch an offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Its administrative boundaries do indeed begin a few kilometers from Velyka Novosilka (which is part of the Donetsk region and is located next to Zaporizhzhia). However, according to several sources, the Dnipropetrovsk region is not currently on the Russian agenda.

North of Donbas

It is likely that after the task of taking Kurakhove is completed, Russian occupiers will shift their focus to Pokrovsk and, possibly, Kostiantynivka. The Russians are separated from Kostiantynivka by more than 10 kilometers and two relatively large towns - Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.

There have been no significant changes recently in the Pokrovsk direction and the Toretsk area —Ukrainian forces continue to maintain control over part of the city. Mines and spoil heaps are in this area, which offers advantages for building defenses. In general, the situation in Toretsk still looks better than in Chasiv Yar.

In November, Russian occupiers managed to break through the canal to the city center, through the Novyi and Zhovtnevyi neighborhoods. Now the main fighting is taking place in the area of the Refractory Plant. At the same time, the Russians are trying to bypass the city from the north and south, although they have not had much success so far.

The next Russia's target after Chasiv Yar and Toretsk will be Kostiantynivka, and after that, the way to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration opens up for the Russian occupiers. Although fighting for these cities does not seem to be a threat soon.

Russia uses the same tactics of warfare, in particular for large settlements - their coverage from different sides. Therefore, to attack the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, Moscow needs to form convenient positions to the east and north of these cities. First of all, we are talking about the Siversk ledge, Lyman, and the left bank of the Oskil.

The Siversk direction is still the most stable in the entire East. In the Lyman sector, near the Chornyi Zherebets River, there are no significant changes in the contact line. Russian occupants made the most progress in the Kupiansk sector. There they approached the outskirts of Kupiansk. A small number of Russian soldiers even managed to sneak into the city from the direction of Synkivka, but they were unable to gain a foothold.

In addition, Russian units forced the Oskil River into its narrowest section near Dvorichna and in the area of Masiutivka to create bridgeheads on the right bank. Ukrainian Defense Forces are trying to stabilize the situation in these two areas. Russian occupiers need to force Oskil to hit the rear of the Ukrainian group defending Kupiansk.

On the other hand, to the south - in the area of Kolisnykivka and Kruhliakivka - where the was able to reach Oskil and cut our bridgehead on the left bank - it failed to expand its penetration.

Kursk region and new threats in Southern Ukraine

Russia continues to try to squeeze out the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kursk region. In recent weeks, Ukrainian units have probably withdrawn from their positions in the Olhivskyi forest in the direction of Mala Loknya, as well as from Daryino beyond the Snagost River. In addition, Russia was able to break through to Plekhove, southeast of Sudzha.

Russia, according to RBC-Ukraine, has amassed about 60,000 personnel for a counteroffensive in the Kursk region. And about 10-11,000 North Korean troops. Agency's interlocutors in military circles claim that North Korean soldiers are already gradually being brought into the battle - in small groups, for the so-called first assault. The main problem of these soldiers is management, primarily due to the language barrier. Each group of 5-7 North Korean soldiers needs a Russian translator.

It is difficult for Ukrainian troops to hold back the Russian offensive along the entire frontline simultaneously (Photo: GettyImages)

It is unknown for certain how much territory in the Kursk region is still controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It can range from 550 to 800 square kilometers. At its peak, the area under the control of Ukrainian troops was 1,376 square kilometers. That is, on the one hand, Russia is indeed succeeding in reducing the Ukrainian foothold. On the other hand, this is not the pace Russia expected.

To speed up the implementation of tasks in the Kursk region, Moscow, according to the agency, has transferred the 76th Air Assault Division from the Zaporizhzhia region. This forced Russia to make some adjustments to its plans for an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, but it did not abandon them, 3 informed sources told RBC-Ukraine.

The interlocutors of the agency claim that the beginning of the Russian operation in Zaporizhzhia was expected approximately in the period from October to December. Now Ukrainian military is predicting that Russia may launch its offensive after December 5. However, this date should not be considered the final date, as Moscow has postponed D-Day more than once before.

The sources RBC-Ukraine spoke to believe that Russia may strike in the area of Kamianske-Piatykhatky in the Zaporizhzhia region to the north to get as close as possible to the city of Zaporizhzhia and get the opportunity to fire on the southern part of the regional center with cannon artillery.

At the same time, according to the agency, the Russians may also carry out another operation soon - to attack Kherson by forcing the Dnipro River, as all bridges in the direction of this city have been destroyed or damaged. Two of the agency's sources claim that the Russian occupiers are bringing equipment for setting up pontoon ferries to areas on the left bank of the Dnipro and are preparing troops.

Why does Russia need this? First, as part of possible negotiations on a potential end to the war, the Kremlin wants to claim the entire territory of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, not just the part it has captured so far. Therefore, in case such negotiations take place, Moscow is seeking to remove discussions about control over these two regions. After all, this is the maximum task for the Russians. The minimum task is to stretch Ukrainian forces.

“We know about their (Russian - ed.) intentions, but we don't know exactly when they want to start. The Russians want to conduct a mirror operation to what we did in Krynky. They have no chance to recapture Kherson. But they need to grab hold of some streets, some houses for the picture, and above all, to stretch the Ukrainian front line. We are aware of their plans - both for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia region - and we are also preparing,” said one of the interlocutors.

Moscow, knowing about Ukrainian problems with the shortage of personnel in the army, is trying to put pressure on our sore spot. Russian occupiers are creating widespread fires to stretch Ukrainian forces in an attempt to extinguish them. Now the Kremlin's goal for the next 2 months is to worsen Ukraine's situation as much as possible before the arrival of Trump, who promised to take up the Ukrainian-Russian conflict immediately after taking office. This applies to both the situation along the contact line and in the rear. Ukraine's task for this period is to withstand and confuse Russia's plans to the maximum extent possible.