Hamas stalls for time: Why Trump’s Middle East peace initiatives failed
Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump (photo: Getty Images)
The peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, which was promoted by US President Donald Trump, has collapsed. Active hostilities have resumed in the Middle East.
RBC-Ukraine explains why US diplomacy only yielded a temporary result and how events may unfold next.
Contents:
While Trump focuses on mediating negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, another of his key achievements, the Hamas-Israel deal, is on the verge of collapse.
Before Trump’s inauguration, his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, convinced both sides to make painful compromises and implement a gradual hostage exchange in return for a ceasefire, Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails. Now this agreement is no longer in effect, and Israel has resumed strikes against Hamas, with the prospect of resuming a large-scale military operation.
Why the deal collapsed
Given the mutual distrust between Israel and Hamas, the agreement was structured in phases. The first one lasted 42 days. During it, some of the hostages were released.
The second phase was to begin on February 3 and involved Israel's complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and an agreement to finally end the war in exchange for the release of the remaining living hostages. The parties had been negotiating for a long time but had not reached an agreement.
Israel claims Hamas rejected all proposals regarding the remaining hostages. According to official data, 59 hostages were not returned, with 24 believed to be alive. Additionally, Hamas is accused of planning new attacks on Israeli civilians and intercepting humanitarian aid intended for Gaza. Based on this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz decided to take military action.
"Hamas’s position is quite clear. They understand that ending the war and releasing hostages would lead to Gaza’s demilitarization and the establishment of a new regime that excludes Hamas," Israeli political scientist and Bar-Ilan University professor Zeev Khanin told RBC-Ukraine. "So their goal is to buy time, delaying the hostage release and prolonging negotiations."
The resumption of military operations also strengthens Netanyahu’s domestic position. During the ceasefire, he faced criticism from some coalition partners.
"The most radical faction of the ruling coalition believes that in the dilemma of freeing hostages versus destroying Hamas, the priority should be eliminating Hamas. That’s why they demanded a return to military action," Khanin added.
US role
Trump’s team spent months trying various methods to pressure Hamas into negotiations. On February 12, the US president threatened that if the group did not release all the hostages, "hell will break out" in the Middle East. He later clarified that this meant giving Israel a free hand in its military operations.
The last attempt to persuade Hamas came last week when Trump’s envoy Witkoff presented a new compromise proposal. It called for extending the first phase of the ceasefire by several weeks in exchange for the release of five living hostages.
On March 18, Hamas spokesman Abdel-Latif al-Qanoua told Reuters that the group remained in contact with mediators and was interested in completing the initial agreement. He claimed Hamas had not rejected Witkoff’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire extension and had actually received it positively. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, Hamas was expected to make a decision in the near future.
However, by stalling negotiations, Hamas miscalculated Trump’s response. He ultimately decided to give Israel the green light for strikes against the group.
Will a ground operation in Gaza begin
During the ceasefire, Hamas, thanks to its control over humanitarian aid distribution in Gaza is able to recruit new fighters from the enclave’s population. While these recruits have little combat experience, they still pose a new threat to Israel.
"Hamas has been gradually creating a new reality, pushing red lines further and further to the point where in a little more time all the gains of a year and a half - destroying organized infrastructure, eliminating a significant part of its military and even political wing - could be a thing of the past," Khanin told RBC-Ukraine.
According to him, the interests of the United States, the Israeli political leadership, and Israeli society are now aligned in continuing the operation to crush Hamas. Trump, in particular, wants the conflict to end quickly. In this situation, he will be ready to give Israel carte blanche for a short time, but not forever.
"Israel’s political leadership is also interested. For the prime minister and his team, it means coalition stability and passing the budget. If this passes and the coalition holds, the elections demanded by the majority of the population may be postponed for another year," Khanin noted.
If Hamas does not agree to extend the truce in the coming days, the likelihood of a large-scale ground operation in Gaza will increase. However, such a move would also raise the risk of hostages being killed.
"As of today, two-thirds of Israelis believe that the return of the hostages is more important than destroying Hamas. But for a certain period, I think a significant portion of these Israelis will be willing to give their politicians and military a chance," Khanin concluded.
Still, the decision to launch a ground offensive will not depend solely on local developments. Regional dynamics, including US policy toward Iran, the new government in Syria, Yemen, and other Middle Eastern flashpoints, will also play a crucial role.
Sources: statements from Israeli and US politicians, a Hamas representative, as well as material from Reuters, The Times of Israel, Asharq Al-Awsat, and comments from Zeev Khanin.
