Why Lukashenko asks Putin to deploy Oreshnik in Belarus, ISW explains
Photo: Russians continue to threaten with the nuclear saber-rattling (Russian media)
The deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus does not increase the risk of medium-range ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine or NATO countries. This appears to be yet another instance of the Kremlin intensifying its "nuclear saber-rattling," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW noted that Putin once again tried to boast about the Oreshnik missile and Russia's missile capabilities during the Union State Supreme State Council meeting. Analysts consider this to be a Kremlin information operation aimed at reflexive control.
The Institute also stated that on December 5, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov similarly attempted to frame the November 21 Oreshnik missile strike on Dnipro as evidence of Moscow's willingness to use any means necessary to prevent a strategic victory by the West over Russia.
According to ISW assessments, the Kremlin's continued boasting about the Oreshnik missile is unlikely to indicate the development of new deep-strike weapons.
"Russia's deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus does not significantly change the threat to Ukraine or NATO given that the Russian military has long had nuclear weapons in mainland Russia and the enclave of Kaliningrad capable of striking targets in Ukraine and NATO. Russian forces fire nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, and nuclear-capable Kh-101 cruise missiles against Ukraine on a regular basis," the ISW report stated.
Creeping annexation
Meanwhile, Russia continues to advance its strategic efforts toward the de facto annexation of Belarus and further expansion of its military presence on the country's territory through the Union State framework.
ISW is convinced that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely trying to preserve Belarus's sovereignty in the face of Moscow and argues that Minsk should control the Russian weapons stationed on its territory. However, these efforts have historically been unsuccessful for Lukashenko.
The report highlights that Lukashenko publicly requested the right to decide how the Oreshnik missiles should be used in Belarus, likely in an attempt to maintain the country's sovereignty within the Union State framework and strengthen his negotiating position against further integration within this union.
"Lukashenko has long attempted to compete against the Kremlin to determine whether Belarus can assert control over Russian military assets - such as advanced S-400 air defense systems - deployed to Belarus. Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Alexander Volfovich similarly baselessly claimed that only Lukashenko could issue the order to use the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus," the report adds.
Meanwhile, ISW notes that Lukashenko has stated that Russian servicemen will continue to operate the Oreshnik system in Belarus. This suggests that Moscow will maintain control over any ballistic missiles of this type deployed in the Union States.
Deployment of the Oreshnik in Belarus
On December 6, Alexander Lukashenko appealed to Vladimir Putin with a request to deploy the Oreshnik missile system on Belarusian territory. Lukashenko expressed concern about the situation at Belarus’s borders with Ukraine.
On November 21, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Dnipro. The Ukrainian Armed Forces speculated that the strike was carried out with an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that the strike came from the Kedк missile system. However, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, clarified that the missile program is called Oreshnik, while the missile itself is named Kedr.
