When will Earth's population shrink? First drop since the Black Death
When and how much the Earth's population can decrease (RBC-Ukraine Collage)
Despite a long period of population growth on the planet, low birth rates, aging populations, and changes in demographic trends may lead to a decline in global population numbers.
The iflscience, explains when the Earth's population might begin to decrease.
Current global population
In 1804, the world's population reached one billion. Over the next 218 years, the intervals between hitting each new billion milestone grew shorter, until in 2022, the UN announced that the Earth had a population of 8 billion people.
The current global population figure depends on the source — and it’s certainly changed between the time this article was written and when you’re reading it.
Worldometer estimates the world's population at just over 8,179,550,700, while other sources, like The World Counts, put it slightly lower, at just under 8,133,842,800. The US Census Bureau estimates it at 8,075,980,800.
It is difficult to determine which, if any, of these figures is entirely accurate, as it is practically impossible to track every birth and death in real-time.
Instead, as explained by the Australian Academy of Science, the world population clock uses "all the information available to determine population increase over the course of the coming year." This includes census data, birth and death records, as well as scientific research.
“Because population growth is continuous, and a clock that updates once every 12 months is a little boring, it divides the estimated annual increase by the number of seconds in a year (31 536 000). This gives it the appearance of constantly ticking upwards,” the Academy states.
How big can the population get?
Regardless of the accuracy of current global population estimates, the number of people on Earth is not expected to keep growing indefinitely. Earlier this year, the latest edition of the UN's World Population Prospects report estimated that the world population will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then decline to 10.2 billion by 2100.
Not only is this predicted peak and decline much sooner than previously expected, but if it happens, it would mark the first time since the Black Death in the 14th century that the global population decreases.
While global population growth continues for now, there are many countries where growth has already slowed or even started to decline. Italy and Japan are well-known examples of this trend, but according to the CIA, which publishes population growth rate data, the steepest decline is on the Cook Islands, with a rate of -2.24%.
A significant factor driving this anticipated peak and subsequent decline is likely the falling birth rate. In more than half of the world's countries, the birth rate is below 2.1 live births per woman, which is theoretically needed to maintain population stability.
