US troops leave Syria: Türkiye and Israel approach 'red line'

It is noted that this decision was made despite Israel's attempts to convince Washington to maintain the presence of US troops in the region. Although these efforts were unsuccessful, Israeli military officials continue to engage in dialogue with the US administration to review the decision.

The troop withdrawal was not a surprise: President Donald Trump publicly advocated for reducing the US military presence in the Middle East during his first term. This position reflects the isolationist foreign policy doctrine of his administration, which is partly shaped by Vice President JD Vance.

"This is not our war," Trump has repeatedly stated. It is known that the Pentagon has been preparing for this scenario for quite some time. Today, Washington is moving to the practical phase, regularly informing the Israeli side about the next steps. During consultations, Israeli representatives have repeatedly expressed deep concern about the potential consequences of such a move.

A senior Israeli official told Ynet that the troop withdrawal may be partial. Israel fears that such a development would only facilitate Turkey's ambitions to strengthen its presence in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Currently, US forces are stationed at several strategic points in eastern and northern Syria and play an important role in ensuring regional stability. In Israel, there are concerns that once the US troops are withdrawn, Ankara will intensify efforts to take control of key military sites, particularly in the Palmyra region, including the T-4 and Tadmur bases.

Turkish 'icebreaker'

According to Ynet, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seeks to use the changing geopolitical situation to strengthen his position in the region. The growing aggressive rhetoric from Ankara regarding Israel following the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip has heightened concerns in Jerusalem. Although Türkiye is officially not an enemy state, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to it as a difficult partner.

Israel has already warned the US and Türkiye that a permanent presence of Turkish military forces at the mentioned bases will be seen as crossing a "red line" and will threaten the freedom of action of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the northern direction.

Last week, a meeting took place in Azerbaijan between representatives of Israel and Türkiye, during which the sides discussed the prospects of implementing conflict avoidance mechanisms similar to the Israeli-Russian model previously applied in Syria.

The Israeli side emphasized that it holds the new Syrian government responsible for the further development of events. Any actions that may threaten Israel's security will be regarded as grounds for a military response. In this context, the sides have started consultations on creating a coordination mechanism to avoid conflicts.

However, the Israeli Ministry of Defense has expressed serious concern that Trump's warm signals towards Erdoğan, particularly during the recent meeting with Netanyahu, reflect a tendency toward growing US distance from the region. Trump's proposal to act as a mediator in relations between Israel and Türkiye was not seen in Jerusalem as a reassuring signal.

According to sources in the security sector, the recent airstrikes on the T-4 base should be viewed as a preemptive race before the withdrawal of the American contingent.

At the same time, Israel is focused on preventing a shift in the balance of power in Syria. Türkiye maintains close ties with the new president of the country, Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former leader of Al-Qaeda, whose jihadist group, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, played a decisive role in the overthrow of Assad's regime in December 2024.

After the withdrawal of Iranian forces, who were previously key allies of Damascus, Israel now fears that Türkiye will attempt to fill the vacuum and establish a military base in the new Syria, which could potentially threaten Israel's operational freedom, particularly in the Golan Heights area.

Israel's concerns and loss of trust

At the conclusion of the meeting in Azerbaijan, technical aspects of creating a conflict prevention mechanism were discussed. The Israeli side made it clear that any change in the presence of foreign troops on Syrian territory, particularly the deployment of Turkish forces in the Palmyra area, is unacceptable and will be viewed as a breach of trust.

"Israel has previously stated that preventing this threat is the responsibility of Damascus. Any action that endangers Israel will endanger al-Sharaa’s regime," a source emphasized.

The T-4 base, located near Tadmur, has recently become a target for Israeli airstrikes. Israeli security officials have stated that the potential presence of Turkish troops in this region, geographically distant from the Turkish border, could significantly limit the operational freedom of the Israeli Air Force.

According to reports, airstrikes on several Syrian targets, including T-4, were carried out after Turkish delegations visited these areas in preparation for a possible deployment.

Despite efforts to de-escalate tensions, just two days after the meeting in Azerbaijan, President Erdoğan made another critical statement, calling Israel a terrorist state and accusing it of attempting to sabotage the Syrian revolution.

"Anyone seeking to inflict more pain on the Syrian people must be prepared to pay the price," the Turkish leader said in his speech.

Situation around Syria

In December 2024, fighters from the Islamic group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad. The leader of Syria was temporarily replaced by the leader of the organization, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

However, despite the arrival of new leadership and Sharaa's efforts to establish ties with Western countries, the military forces of the US and Israel have regularly carried out strikes on targets associated with the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda to prevent the expansion of the influence of Islamic groups in the country.

In early February, the administration of President Donald Trump announced its intention to withdraw American troops from Syria.