Ukraine’s frontline situation improves compared to early 2024 – IISS
Photo: International Institute for Strategic Studies assessed situation at the front (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The situation in Ukraine is not as dire as it was at the beginning of 2024. In the near future, it will continue to rely on Western support and improved personnel management to avoid further setbacks on the battlefield, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The leading security research center notes that while 2024 was a difficult year for Ukraine on the battlefield, its armed forces managed to limit Russia’s territorial gains and inflict significant losses. These results — achieved despite Ukraine's acute ammunition shortage in the first half of 2024 and difficulties with manpower—demonstrate that Russia’s battlefield successes are far from decisive.
According to IISS, Ukraine’s Armed Forces are not currently facing a critical equipment shortage. However, they will likely require significantly more weapons, particularly advanced Western-made systems, to reliably halt Russian offensives. Launching counteroffensives and reclaiming occupied territory will require even greater material resources. If the West reduces or halts its support, the situation could deteriorate significantly in the medium term.
Key issue
“Nevertheless, the main issue Ukraine faces now is personnel, particularly in terms of management and distribution,” the report states.
Several newly formed brigades, such as the 152nd and 155th, have gone through a chaotic formation process. These units, including the 150th Mechanized Brigade, have been deployed to some of the most intense front-line battles, suffering heavy losses, IISS notes.
According to the institute, these command and personnel management issues are frequently cited by Ukrainians as a deterrent to voluntary enlistment. Ukraine’s most elite and prestigious units recruit directly and face fewer staffing shortages.
“If Ukraine addresses these issues, it could significantly improve its military capabilities. The country still has enough unmobilized personnel to fully replenish its depleted units, with an estimated need for 50,000–100,000 additional troops,” the report states.
As a reminder, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that a year ago, the Russian army's advantage in artillery ammunition was roughly 10 to 1. Today, that ratio has narrowed to nearly 2 to 1.
