Russians likely capture Kurakhove in Donetsk region, says ISW

The report states that Russian forces have likely captured the city of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region. Geolocated footage released on December 24 and 25 shows that Russians have recently advanced in the western part of the city and up to a windbreak southwest of the settlement.

According to ISW's assessment, Russian forces likely advanced to the administrative boundaries and captured this settlement, as well as fields south of the city and north of the village of Dalne.

Russian military bloggers claim that units of Russia's 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Combined Arms Army (CAA), formerly the 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps (DNR AC)) raised the flag over the western part of Kurakhove. Meanwhile, units of the 110th and 114th Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st CAA, as well as the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions (both part of the 8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District, SMD), are conducting offensives along the northern and southern flanks of Kurakhove.

Russian sources have published contradictory claims about the scale of the Russian advance in Kurakhove. Some military bloggers assert that Russian forces have moved beyond the city toward the village of Dachne (west of Kurakhove). At the same time, others claim that the Russian troops are unsuccessfully attacking the Kurakhove Thermal Power Plant (TPP) to the west of the city, which, according to ISW estimates, lies outside the administrative boundaries of Kurakhove.

The Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group of Forces acknowledged that Ukraine's Defense Forces recently lost unspecified positions in the direction of Kurakhove.

Significant losses

The Institute for the Study of War calculated that the Russian army spent more than two months capturing Kurakhove, an area of 7.3 square kilometers. Russians intensified their offensive operations to capture the settlement in mid-October 2024.

ISW referred to geolocated video footage confirming that Russian forces first advanced toward the city in late October 2024. According to the Institute, in recent months, the Russian military concentrated between 35,000 and 36,000 servicemen in the Kurakhove direction to capture the settlement and eliminate Ukrainian resistance to its north and south.

"Russian forces have likely sustained significant casualties during this period of intensified offensive operations. Russian forces have also conducted a large number of armored assaults within and near Kurakhove over the last two months and have likely sustained significant armored vehicle losses during their effort to seize the settlement," the report states.

Difficult prospects for Russian advancement

ISW analysts believe that Russian forces may find it difficult to advance further west from Kurakhove along the H-15 Kurakhove-Pokrovsk highway if the Defense Forces decide to defend the Kurakhove TPP and Russians fail to outflank Ukrainian positions at the TPP near Dachne or Ulakly.

Russian military bloggers claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces maintain a presence near the Kurakhove TPP west of the settlement along the H-15 highway.

"Russian forces may struggle to advance farther westward along the H-15 highway from Kurakhove if Russian forces choose to conduct a frontal assault through the Kurakhove TPP area and if Ukrainian forces decide to allocate sufficient manpower and materiel to defend in the area," the report states.

Russian forces may try to bypass the TPP, advancing further south of the highway through fields west and northwest of Dalne (south of Kurakhove) toward Ulakly (west of Kurakhove).

The Institute for the Study of War does not rule out that Russians may also try to advance south from the village of Stari Terny (northwest of Kurakhove and on the northwestern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir) to Dachne (west of Kurakhove) to outflank Ukrainian positions at the TPP.

Russian forces may also attempt to advance north from Zelenivka (southwest of Kurakhove) toward Ulakly. This would threaten Ukraine's Defense Forces' ability to supply positions at the TPP and complicate a potential future withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the plant and positions in the fields south of Dachne.

Units involved in Kurakhove offensive

The primary forces involved in capturing Kurakhove were units of the 51st CAA amid ongoing efforts to centralize and formalize the units of this formation within the Russian armed forces.

Elements of the 51st CAA's 5th and 110th motorized rifle brigades have participated in the most tactically significant offensive operations in Kurakhove since mid-October 2024 and have been involved in offensive operations west of Donetsk, as Russia intensified its activities in this area at least since the summer of 2024.

In addition, ISW notes that units of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division are also operating in Kurakhove, likely overseeing brigade operations in the settlement and future offensives west of it.

"Russian authorities have recently intensified their efforts to formalize former DNR units under the Russian military and will likely credit and praise these forces for their role in seizing Kurakhove in the coming days," the ISW report states.

Situation on frontline

On the frontline of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the situation remains challenging and intense.

Ukrainian forces have advanced in the Toretsk area. At the same time, Russians are actively assaulting Ukrainian defenders near Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Over the past day, the Russian army has lost more than 1,600 soldiers at the frontline, as well as a large number of tanks and artillery systems.

Meanwhile, the Russian military has deployed a carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles in the Black Sea.