Russian divergent political scientist answers how West sees Putin and whether he wants nuclear war
Photo: Putin blackmails world with nuclear weapons (Getty Images)
Western politicians are making one of two mistakes. They either think Putin is too rational, just like them, or they see him as a crazy maniac with a nuclear button in his hands, Ivan Preobrazhensky, a Russian political analyst in the opposition, told RBC-Ukraine in an interview.
According to the political analyst, the further a European country from Ukraine, the less its politicians believe that Putin poses a threat not only to one country but to Europe as a whole.
“And if they don't believe in the threat, they assume Putin lacks the resources for a war against Europe. Many Western diplomats and politicians held this belief even before February 24, thinking that Putin didn’t have enough resources to occupy and hold Ukraine,” he said.
However, this opinion did not prevent the Russian army from launching a war, one of the goals of which is to destroy the country as a whole, Preobrazhensky recalled.
“In normal circumstances, you have to understand that you're dealing with a maniac, with his own very clearly constructed schizophrenic logic, but a maniac who lives in a completely different reality from you. But it’s difficult for most people to accept this, and most people tend to explain others' actions through their own motivations. Accordingly, they think that, rationally, they would use nuclear weapons in this situation,” the political scientist said.
Preobrazhensky said that when he talked to his Western colleagues, he asked - why didn't Russia use nuclear weapons in 2022 when there was a chance they would lose?
“They say Russia didn’t use nuclear weapons because they were confident they wouldn’t lose. No, that’s clearly not true. They didn’t use nuclear weapons because they’re afraid to. Everything Putin does is aimed at keeping himself in power in Russia and, if possible, fulfilling what he sees as his historical mission: creating a new gigantic space where Russia would have influence” he believes.
Putin values his own life far more than the lives of not just Russians and Ukrainians, but also Russia and Ukraine themselves. "He’s rational enough to understand that if he starts a nuclear war, he’s likely not going to survive. And all those bunkers in Altai, for example, clearly aren’t enough. It’s not enough to be 100% sure that he will stay alive," says Preobrazhensky.
Therefore, the political scientist believes, “Western politicians either make one mistake or another - they either consider Putin too rational, like them or see him as a madman with his finger on the nuclear button. He added that Putin is actively trying to fit into the second image.
“As a result, a mistaken, unequivocal situation arises - the number of people who have dealt with people like Putin is minimal, and they cannot influence decision-making strategically. To put it simply, if, for example, NATO were run by someone who had experience fighting crime in a big city and had dealt with thugs like Putin many times, they would know how to act. The only thing this type understands is power, extremely hard power, clearly indicating a readiness to use it under any circumstances, and applying that power when necessary without hesitation," says the political scientist.
CIA Director William Burns said that at the time of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in the fall of 2022, there was a real risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
According to a Levada Center poll, about 30% of Russians expect Putin to launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
