Russia starts counterattacks in Kursk region, their scale remains unclear - ISW

Russian advances

Analysts have emphasized that the situation in the region remains unstable, making it premature to conclude new Russian counterattacks.

Geolocation footage from September 11 shows that Russian forces have recaptured positions east of Zhuravli (northeast of Korenevo). Additional footage from September 10 indicates that units from the 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment advanced north and northeast of Snagost (south of Korenevo) during a mechanized offensive involving up to a company.

Russian military bloggers' claims

Russian military bloggers have claimed that Russian forces launched a mechanized counterattack from the north near Korenevo and rapidly advanced to Snagost. Several Russian sources reported that Russian troops had fully captured Snagost, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.

Russian sources also alleged that units from the 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment and the 155th Marine Brigade advanced in the Snagost area, capturing: Krasnooktyabrskoye, Komarovka, Vishnevka, Apanasovka, October 10, Obukhovka, Byakhovo, Vnezapnoye, and Gordeevka.

ISW has not provided confirmation or denial of these reports.

Russian forces may deploy experienced units

Analysts point out that, based on available visual evidence, Russian troops counterattacking in the Kursk region are operating in company-sized units and may be utilizing parts of more experienced combat units for these counterattacks.

While Russian forces might rely on relatively capable units for assaults, the effectiveness of these operations remains uncertain. This uncertainty is because these units, such as the 155th Marine Brigade, have been repeatedly degraded and reconstituted.

Insufficient Russian troops

According to ISW, it remains unclear whether Russia has sufficient forces to dislodge Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region or defend against potential new Ukrainian counterattacks mentioned in the report. Analysts raise this issue because it appears that the Russian command has deployed not full formations but only parts of units to the Kursk region.

It is also uncertain whether the Russian authorities believe that the current Russian troop contingent in Kursk, which mostly consists of conscripts, irregular Russian forces, and smaller elements of regular and elite Russian units, will be able to successfully push Ukrainian forces out of the region.

ISW concludes by suggesting that Russia might be planning to redeploy additional, more capable Russian units from Ukraine, but it is unclear when such redeployment could occur.