Russia may launch early strikes on Ukraine's energy system to maximize damage – ISW
Illustrative photo: Fire at a thermal power plant in Kharkiv following an attack (Getty Images)
Russia has likely started this year’s campaign of strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure earlier than usual. Moscow may be trying to inflict maximum damage before Ukraine develops ways to counter the attacks, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that Russia’s Ministry of Defense has already established the main rhetorical narrative Moscow is using to justify a potential escalation of strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the fall and winter of 2026–2027.
The Russian ministry claims that such strikes are allegedly a response to numerous Ukrainian attacks on civilian facilities in Russia, which Moscow says have been ongoing since June 2026.
ISW believes this rhetoric may be intended to prepare Russian society and the international community for a new large-scale strike campaign.
What is Putin trying to achieve
According to analysts, Ukraine’s battlefield successes in 2026 appear to be forcing Russian leader Vladimir Putin to reconsider his initial plan for achieving victory in the war.
Instead of relying exclusively on the advance of Russian forces on the battlefield, Moscow may place greater emphasis on long-range strikes against Ukrainian territory during the winter of 2026–2027.
“This strike campaign aims to make civilian life in Ukraine unbearable such that Ukraine will capitulate to Russia’s demands,” the ISW report says.
Analysts recall that Russia has conducted similar campaigns against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure every winter since the 2022–2023 season.
This time, according to ISW, Moscow may begin the attacks earlier in order to strike Ukraine’s already damaged energy system before Kyiv can strengthen its defenses against new Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.
ISW separately noted that Russia’s rhetoric is intended to justify an escalation of the strike campaign against both Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and other critical infrastructure.
Ukraine strikes Russia’s oil industry
Amid predictions of a new Russian strike campaign, Ukraine continues to conduct long-range operations against Russia’s oil infrastructure.
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, these operations have taken more than 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity offline.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense previously threatened to intensify strikes on Kyiv following Ukrainian attacks on Moscow.
