Putin's territorial ambitions extend far beyond Donbas – ISW warns
Photo: Russian leader Vladimir Putin (Getty Images)
The Kremlin continues to make territorial demands on Ukraine, citing shared history. Moscow's claims are not limited to Donbas, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to assert territorial claims against Ukraine that extend far beyond Donbas. To justify his demands, he relies on his own interpretation of history and claims that Ukrainians and Russians are supposedly “one people.”
On October 22, Putin said that occupied Ukrainian territories were supposedly part of “historical Russia.” On the same day, he rejected a proposal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had suggested the previous day freezing hostilities along the current front line as part of a ceasefire agreement.
According to ISW, Putin likely uses the term “historical Russia” to refer to so-called “Novorossiya.” This is an invented and vaguely defined concept of a region in southern and eastern Ukraine that Russian authorities seek to portray as an integral part of Russia.
The territories the Kremlin includes in this concept encompass Crimea and the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. However, the list does not end there. Russian visions of “Novorossiya” also include the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions.
Moscow's claims of “historical rights” therefore concern a much larger area than the territory Russian forces are attempting to capture in Donbas.
What Russia is demanding from Ukraine
The Kremlin is currently insisting that territories still under Ukrainian control be transferred to Russia, including areas in three regions.
Moscow is demanding that Ukraine surrender:
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20.5% of Donetsk region that remains under Ukrainian control;
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24.5% of Zaporizhzhia region, including the city of Zaporizhzhia, which had a population of more than 700,000 before the full-scale invasion;
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30% of Kherson region, including the city of Kherson, which had a prewar population of nearly 300,000.
Putin's statements suggest that Russia's territorial claims could extend far beyond these demands. According to ISW, they are not limited to Ukraine's so-called “fortress belt” in the Donetsk region and could potentially encompass the entire country.
Why the Kremlin is not ready to compromise
Putin continues to insist that Russia achieve all of its stated military objectives, including demands that would effectively require Ukraine's complete capitulation.
ISW assesses that this position indicates the Kremlin is unwilling to pursue a negotiated peace settlement based on compromise. According to the analysts, Moscow views negotiations with Kyiv primarily as a way to force Ukraine to accept Russian terms rather than as an opportunity to reach a mutually acceptable agreement.
Putin's refusal to support a ceasefire along the current front line also demonstrates that Russia is unwilling simply to freeze the situation on the battlefield. His statements about “historical Russia” suggest that the Kremlin's territorial ambitions could be considerably broader than the demands Moscow has publicly made concerning individual regions.
Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that resolving the issue of Donbas could be the key to bringing Russia's war against Ukraine closer to an end. He stressed that both sides would have to make concessions.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was ready to end the war as soon as possible, including by halting hostilities along the current front line. However, Kyiv will not agree to legally recognize temporarily occupied territories as Russian.
