In case of prolonged war in summer 2025, Russia will face dilemma
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (photo: Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
In the event of a protracted war in the summer of 2025, Russia will face a dilemma. It will either have to stop it all or announce a new large-scale mobilization, states Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.
According to him, the situation with mobilization in Russia is not so simple - problems with human resources began about three months ago, although this moment is not known to everyone.
"Now the Russian Defense Ministry is trying to fix the situation (with mobilization - ed.). The enemy understands that if the protracted war continues, Russia will face a dilemma no later than the summer of 2025: either to stop it all or to announce a new large-scale mobilization. The enemy will delay things to the end. Because, according to the Russian leadership, large-scale mobilization can seriously shake the political situation," he said.
The DIU chief reminded that Russia had no problems with mobilization before - at the beginning of the full-scale war, the enemy announced a partial mobilization.
"Then they started offering people large sums of money. But they didn't manage to mobilize enough in this way. Everyone else went to the war from prisons, volunteered, or people were immediately transferred from conscript service to contract soldiers. Think about why the enemy is constantly raising the level of a one-time cash payment for signing a contract. Depending on the region, the amounts have already reached 2 million Russian rubles. This is a huge amount of money for Russia," the intelligence officer states.
The answer, according to Budanov, is obvious: the flow of volunteers is catastrophically decreasing.
"And in recent months, the Russian army has faced a staff shortage for the first time. Russia has a mobilization plan, and according to it, almost 10% of the shortage was recorded," he summarized.
Mobilization in Russia
As previously reported, the decision to announce official mobilization in Russia was already on the table in the Kremlin, but it was postponed for several reasons. In particular, because of the so-called presidential elections that took place in the spring.
Russia is using various tricks to mobilize more people. For example, the militants in the Luhansk region were given a new methodology for mobilizing people to the Russian army. According to it, they decided to recruit suspects as well.
