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Course of Russia-Ukraine war in 2024 predicted by Fitch Ratings

Course of Russia-Ukraine war in 2024 predicted by Fitch Ratings Ukrainian military (GettyImages)
Author: Maria Kholina

International agency Fitch Ratings anticipates that the war between Russia and Ukraine will continue throughout 2024 within its current broad parameters, according to the agency's statement.

"In our view, Ukraine still has some strategic military advantage, underpinned by strong resolve and Western military support, but its counteroffensive has made limited gains so far, and in our central scenario there is insufficient superiority to decisively deliver objectives," the statement reads.

The agency's analysts also believe that there are no politically justified actions that could lead to ending the war through negotiations, potentially resulting in a protracted conflict.

"Over a longer horizon, we anticipate some form of settlement, but view a 'frozen conflict' as more likely than a sustainable peace deal, at least for a significant period," the agency adds.


The National Bank of Ukraine and the Cabinet of Ministers anticipate a significant reduction in security risks in early 2025. Previously, it was expected to happen in mid-2024.

The baseline scenario of the October macroeconomic forecast of the NBU is based on a more conservative assumption than in previous forecasts, which were "high security risks are expected to persist until the end of 2024," whereas in July, the NBU expected their significant reduction in the middle of the next year.

Furthermore, the budget proposal for the second reading takes into account the change in the assumption of the duration of the war (throughout 2024). In September, the Cabinet of Ministers expected a significant decrease in security risks in the second half of 2024.