Real threat or PSYOP: Details on 'major attack' and embassy shutdowns in Ukraine
Photo: Ukrainians are asked not to believe Russian PSYOP (Vitalii Nosach/RBC-Ukraine)
The US Embassy in Ukraine issued a warning about a "serious attack" on Ukraine today, suspending operations for the day. Later, social media posts emerged about the threat of a strike, which Ukraine's military intelligence called a psychological operation, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the warnings from partners as "information over-escalation."
RBC-Ukraine compiled all that is known so far.
Contents
Which embassies closed and why?
In the morning, the US Embassy issued a warning to American citizens in Ukraine, citing "specific information" about a potentially large-scale air attack on November 20.
"Out of an abundance of caution, the Embassy will be closed, and Embassy employees are being instructed to shelter in place. The US Embassy recommends US citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced," the statement read.
The embassy also advised monitoring Ukrainian media, identifying shelter locations in advance, and following local authority instructions in emergencies.
According to the Spanish news agency EFE, Spain closed its embassy in Kyiv due to the potential air attack. Greece followed suit, while Italy’s embassy announced it would remain operational but closed to the public for the day.
These embassies similarly advised their citizens to follow safety protocols, respond to air raid alerts, seek shelters, and avoid travel. Kazakhstan's embassy advised citizens to consider leaving Ukraine or, at the very least, avoiding areas near combat zones.
Meanwhile, the embassies of the United Kingdom and Poland remain open. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that staying operational was "an act of solidarity with Ukraine despite Russia's heightened attacks on Kyiv." The German embassy is operating in a "limited mode" but remains accessible to German citizens.
Concerns over a potential airstrike coincide with increased talk about Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh missile. Details regarding its potential deployment remain speculative, but its mention has added to the heightened tension.
The head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), Andriy Kovalenko, believes the warnings are justified. He cited reports of Russia stockpiling missiles for months in preparation for a series of strikes on Ukraine.
"The Russians have been stockpiling Kh-101 missiles, which they continue to produce, as well as Kalibr cruise missiles and ballistic weapons... This must be understood and remembered. Authorities need to plan security measures, and people must respond to air raid alerts," Kovalenko wrote on Telegram. He added that Russian missile carriers are "in a state of readiness."
Around 2:00 PM Kyiv time, air raid alerts were declared for northern, central, and some western regions of Ukraine. The Air Force reported a missile threat to Kyiv, as well as Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava regions.
Monitoring channels noted two high-speed targets heading toward the Kyiv region but later stated that both were "lost from location." No explosions were reported, and by 2:20 PM Kyiv time, the alert was lifted.
Why is Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh missile being discussed
Amid the morning "panic," several Telegram channels reported that Russia might launch an experimental RS-26 Rubezh missile. These reports specified that the launch could allegedly occur from the Kapustin Yar testing range in the Astrakhan region, which is less than 600 kilometers from the frontline in Ukraine.
The likely source of these claims was the Strategic Control channel, which specializes in so-called OSINT (open-source intelligence) through monitoring radio frequencies and tracking Russian strategic aviation. The likelihood of using the Rubezh missile was linked to a potential response to ATACMS ballistic missile strikes on a major arsenal in Russia's Bryansk region.
However, OSINT experts clarified that this information could be nothing more than an attempt by the Kremlin to exert psychological pressure and demonstrate strength to Ukraine's Western partners.
The RS-26 Rubezh is a Russian project for a mobile ground-based strategic missile system equipped with an intercontinental ballistic missile. This missile can be fitted with a thermonuclear warhead.
Details about the Rubezh are scarce. It is known that successful tests took place in the early 2010s, and in 2018, it was excluded from Russia's state missile program through 2027. Reportedly, the missile can cover distances of up to 6,000 kilometers and carry four warheads with a total yield of 1.2 megatons of TNT equivalent.
According to the Ukrainian defense resource Defense Express, the missile's current status remains unclear. The outlet notes that the Kremlin threatened to resume the production of medium-range missiles this summer. The Rubezh is not a uniquely innovative missile; rather, it is a variant of the well-known Topol-M. Moscow likely can restart production of the RS-26.
Read more in the article titled "RS-26 Rubezh: What Russia's new missile signals about its military strategy."
Is the threat of a "major attack" real
Regarding the "specific information about a potentially large-scale airstrike," RBC-Ukraine sought comments from military and security agencies. They stated that there is currently no information confirming this.
However, officials clarified that the risk of enemy attacks always persists. Therefore, Ukrainians are advised not to ignore air raid sirens and to take shelter when alarms are sounded.
An RBC-Ukraine source at the US Embassy stated that the closure is not linked to Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine or threats to lower the threshold for a nuclear strike.
"The closure of the embassy is related to air raid alerts, including the possible threat of a combined drone and missile attack, similar to what happened recently (apparently referring to the massive attack on November 17)," the source said.
Political scientist and analyst at the Center for Scaling Technological Solutions, Maksym Nesvitaylov, noted that details about large-scale attacks are rarely known in advance.
"I think this is a tool of psychological pressure. Just a few days ago, there was a massive missile and drone attack. As we saw, embassies did not close, and no warnings were issued," he said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
He believes the pressure is primarily aimed at European countries to deter them from authorizing strikes deep into Russian territory with long-range weapons, possibly pushing them toward panic.
"Even if such an attack happens today — considering the ‘announcement’ and the preparation by Ukraine’s Armed Forces — it’s not certain it will occur at all. But, for instance, if it does happen, I struggle to imagine how it would differ significantly from the previous massive missile strikes that Russia conducts regularly," Nesvitaylov added.
The Main Intelligence Directorate (DIU) of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense stated that all reports of an allegedly especially massive strike on cities on November 20 are part of a Russian informational and psychological operation.
"This report is fake... We urge everyone to trust information only from official sources and DIU spokespersons. Do not ignore air raid sirens — it’s safer to wait it out in a shelter. However, we call on everyone not to give in to panic," DIU said in a statement.
The intelligence agency attached a screenshot of a message falsely attributed to them, claiming that a massive attack after 2:30 PM involving drones and missiles of various capacities would target energy, gas distribution hubs, and strategic civilian facilities.
Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) responded to some embassies' temporary switch to remote work, stating it is in contact with partners regarding potential threats. However, the ministry emphasized that the threat of strikes has been ongoing since Russia's full-scale invasion began.
"We believe it would be appropriate for our partners to respond on the 1,001st day in the same way as on the previous thousand days, without any additional informational escalation. We urge all Ukrainian citizens to remain vigilant, not to ignore air raid signals, and to head to shelters in case of danger," the MFA added.
Sources: statements from Western embassies in Ukraine, the Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko, materials from the press service of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and comments from political scientist Maksym Nesvitaylov provided to RBC-Ukraine.
